Tuesday, 4th April 2023
Migration won the Lincoln….
…. the first 7yo to do so since Star Of A Gunner back in 1987….
Officially rated 107, he carried top weight….
…. and he was sent off at 18s….
Not many saw it coming. I certainly didn’t. Migration got nowhere near my shortlist….
Trainer David Menuisier wasn’t surprised though….
“We felt he was so unlucky in the Balmoral at Ascot, he went along the rail and got blocked. He was running off 109 so I always felt he could win a heritage handicap. We've taken our time with him and I genuinely felt we had him spot on. He's so lightly raced, he doesn't have much mileage and he's been giving us the right signals all the way through. We were actually quite confident.”
I watched the Balmoral again last night – watch here….
Migration started out in stall 23 and ended up making his challenge right over on the other rail – so his race wasn’t exactly straightforward….
That said my impression is that he still had plenty to do when his run was halted inside the final furlong….
But Menuisier would know a lot more than me….
…. and, of course, he got a first-hand report of the fine detail….
…. exactly what went wrong and what might have been….
…. from William Buick – who rode the horse that day….
Nobody was better placed than Buick to assess how close Migration would have been had the race worked out more favorably….
…. but the Menuisier team clearly felt hard done by….
…. and Saturday’s performance says justifiably so….
Migration’s gone up 6lbs in the rankings for the win – to a mark of 113….
…. and his foreseeable future lies in the pattern races….
…. because he’s not going to be winning anymore handicaps – at least not for a while….
I was happy to find a winner at a decent price on Saturday….
…. but still managed to wind-up disappointed on the day….
How so?
…. Raising Sand….
I agonized all Friday morning about putting him up as a second selection in the Spring Mile….
…. a horse begging to be backed at an each-way price….
…. on a mark almost a stone lower than his career-best handicap win….
…. on ground come right for him….
But I talked myself out of it….
I noted his age – he’s 11 – and wondered if I might be relying too much on replication of form produced on much younger legs….
Whatever….
I didn’t put him up…. and I didn’t back him….
…. and you know what comes next….
…. he hit the frame – sent off at 50s….
I don’t think he was quite that price on Friday morning – I can’t be sure….
…. but it still felt like one that got away….
Jack Channon’s Majestic finished 4/16 in Saturday’s race – beaten 3.5l….
…. and – for my money – he’s the one to take out of the race….
You might recall the 5yo won last season’s edition of the Cambridgeshire off 86 – sent off at 25s….
He’s still only had 9 races at this point….
…. and his performance on Saturday – produced off a mark of 93 that remains unaltered after reassessment – suggests there’s more to come….
…. especially as he steps back up in trip….
He clearly appreciated the Cambridgeshire trip last term….
…. and the plan this year will almost certainly involve assignments at 10f….
A mark of 93 will put him toward the foot of the weights in these big heritage handicaps – which are surely going to be his target….
He’s a horse who could prove to be 10lb ahead of the handicapper with a stiffer test….
…. and it’s not hard to see him landing another big pot….
I wouldn’t be writing Wanees off after his down-the-field performance….
He was unsuited by the ground and was never going to justify his position in the market on the day….
He needs a quicker surface….
He was progressive on quick ground last term – producing a 6/30 finish in the Britannia at Royal Ascot – beaten 3.25 lengths off 91….
…. and whilst he had won on soft as a juvenile at Salisbury – he wasn’t putting any world-beaters to the sword that afternoon….
…. and he’s certainly encountered nothing like that type of ground since….
Ahead of Saturdays race, Charlie Hills wasn’t confident about the ground. Not at all. They had to run him to find out. And now they have found out….
You won’t see Wanees on soft ground again….
Saturday’s performance goes into the book as a 36+ length beating – a proper duck egg….
But draw a line through it….
…. the ground was patently against him….
…. and the margin of defeat overeggs the pudding….
…. because he was plenty eased once his chance had disappeared….
Whatever he was before – he still is….
…. and he’d be interesting turning up in a big handicap on quick ground at some point this summer….
…. especially at a nice post-flop price….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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