Thursday, 6th April 2023
We’re still over a week away from the Grand National….
…. but the line-up is starting to take on a likely shape…..
…. and plenty of bookies are up with their Non-Runner-No-Bet (NRNB) concession….
For me – it’s a good time to take a swing at a big price….
…. to get a few quid down on a horse that can run a bigger race than the market currently believes….
…. or….
…. depending on how you like to play these things….
…. maybe take an early position in the exchanges – on a horse with the potential to trade shorter on the day….
…. meaning you can lay-off at the shorter price and protect your stake….
…. with a nice bet-to-nothing running for you – or an opportunity to trade out for a profit at your fingertips – whatever happens in the race…. whatever the outcome….
Henry De Bromhead’s Gabbys Choice is the bet….
The 8yo can be backed at a general 66s with the firms – and at 75.0 on Betfair Exchange….
The bookies up at the top price of 66s who also offer the NRNB concession,,,,
…. meaning you get your stake back if Gabbys Choice doesn’t run in next week’s race – for whatever reason….
…. are bet365, Betfred & Livescore….
Of course, the downside to taking an each-way price at this stage is that the bookies are offering standard place terms of ¼ 1-2-3-4-5….
…. and there will be firms offering better deals and more places on the day….
…. but perhaps not at the same price….
…. and you can’t have everything….
There’s a list of things I like about Gabby’s Cross going into the race….
First, he’s got a guaranteed run….
…. he isn’t dependent on horses coming out of the race. With 57 horses still entered – Gabbys Cross is 38 on the list…..
In other words, if he stays fit and well – he’ll be lining up….
Second, he’s versatile with regard to underfoot conditions….
He’s produced decent performances in good staying chase handicaps on good ground and softer….
…. and that’s a useful attribute to have factored into the bet….
…. given we’re still a way out from race day – and we’ve no idea what the weather will do or how the ground will be….
Third, I reckon he’ll relish the trip….
He was 6/28 beaten 4l in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over the 3m trip in January….
…. but look at how he finished the race off that day….
…. he was going as well as anything late on – and making gains on the horses in front….
…. signalling that extra yardage could well be to his advantage next week….
Finally, he thrives in a big-field environment….
He’s shown up well in multiple Open standard handicaps over the last 12-months….
…. winning one at Galway off 137 and producing a creditable effort in the Kerry National off 143 before backing up in the Paddy Power Chase off 143 again….
He wasn’t quite as close in the Thyestes – maybe the ground was just too heavy…. but he ran well again in the Leinster National at Naas last month off that same mark of 143….
He goes off 143 once again on Saturday – and I can see that he might look like a horse that sits just a little too high in the ratings….
…. but it’s about finding more improvement….
…. and a big-field handicap over big fences, a stiffer trip and better ground than he’s tackled of late might just be a combination of factors that produces it….
There’s something else you need if you’re going to win a Grand National….
…. luck….
…. and if you can’t get good luck – then at least avoid the bad variety….
So much can go wrong in the big race over the big fences at Liverpool….
Running your own race…. getting position…. holding it…. getting over the fences…. making it round….
…. all that’s challenging enough….
But when you’ve horses all around you …. making mistakes…. jumping across you…. bumping you…. blundering…. unseating…. falling…. interfering with you…. impeding you…. maybe even bringing you down with them….
…. there’s an element of the lottery embroidered into the fabric of the race….
Dan Skelton was on about it this week in an interview with the Racing Post….
He was talking about preparing horses for the Grand National….
“You don’t build your hopes up for this race because there are 40 runners and anything can happen. You just get yourself prepared the best you can and have a go. It’s not like running in a conditions race when you know you’ve got the best horse before you turn up. This is the most competitive handicap of the year.”
…. but he might just as well have been talking about betting big-field handicaps in general…..
…. anything can happen….
…. it’s really competitive….
…. all you can do is prepare as well as you can….
…. roll the dice….
…. and hope for the best of luck on the day….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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