The pick of the prices on Day 2 at Aintree....

Thursday, 13th April 2023

The pick of the prices on Day 2 at Aintree….

Today is Day 1 at Aintree’s Grand National meeting….

…. which means the Red Rum Handicap Chase….

I sent out my betting advice for this big handicap yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here….

I go out early doors with my betting advice in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about my race selections….

Sometimes it comes off. Other times it doesn’t….

… but because I go out early with my selections, we are always a little ahead of the game here at ATC….

The flag hasn’t been raised on Day 1 – and I’m already thinking about Day 2….

…. which means the William Hill Handicap Hurdle, the Topham Chase, and the Abersoch Land And Sea Handicap Hurdle….

• In the William Hill (2.20)….

If the weather forecasters can be believed….

…. and they have done me up like a kipper on occasions….

…. the ground will be drying out at Aintree over the next 24-hours and that will help Alan King’s TRITONIC – an interesting candidate up at a general 25s….

He’s got to prove he gets the 2m4f trip. He’s only tried once before – in the G2 Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day….

He was plenty up against it at the weights – against some smart operators – and he got well smashed on the day….

…. but soft ground wouldn’t have helped him get home and he’ll have more accommodating underfoot conditions tomorrow….

…. and he’ll also have the benefit of a flat track….

The key consideration is his mark. He’s down to 135 from a career-high mark of 147. If he gets the trip tomorrow, he’s handicapped to go close….

He’s tumbled down the ratings for good reason. They all do. The trick is to catch them when they’re ready to bounce back and capitalise….

The recent addition of cheekpieces have brought about a couple of improved performances….

…. and he ran a decent enough race last time at Kelso….

…. doing all his best work late….

…. and suggesting that the steadier early pace and extra yardage tomorrow will see him to better effect still….

• In the Topham (4.05)….

The fences come thick and fast in the Topham and front runners have proved tough – and on occasion impossible – to peg back in more recent renewals….

…. and I reckon Warren Greatrex’s BILL BAXTER can make a bold bid from the front at a big 20s….

This will be his first go at a big pot – he’s only raced over fences five times….

…. but he’s won three of his last four, he’s improving and he deserves to have a  crack at this….

He jumped really well at Kelso last time – swift and fluent – and he kept on gamely in a competitive finish. He’s tough, he’s in good health and he’s on the up….

He’ll need to take to the fences – but so will plenty of others – and all the obvious ones with form over the Aintree spruce are well prominent in the betting….

My job is to find something that might be overlooked and Bill Baxter ticks boxes….

• In the Abersoch (5.15)….

I’m siding with Paul Nicholls and his 4yo BLUEKING D’OROUX under Angus Cheleda in the Abersoch….

…. who will be bidding to win the prize for the yard for the second year in succession….

A wind-op appeared to produce a real transformation in performance last time at Ascot – where he ran out the winner of a 4yo handicap at 50s….

There’s always a concern that a much-improved performance like that will prove in time to be a mere flash in the pan….  

…. but he won well, he beat a decent marker from his own yard in Afadil….

…. and – taking the performance at face value – he’s got a bit of something about him….

…. which is why they brought him over from France in the first place….

That Ascot race was at the start of the month – so we’re dealing with a horse very much in form now – and he must be showing Nicholls something at home….

He’s only 4, they’ll expect him to improve quite a bit next year but – at the general 12s – I’m prepared to put a few quid down on him getting into the mix tomorrow….

• The last word….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the Day 3 action at Aintree – including the Grand National….

Until then.

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd