The pick of the prices at Sandown & Punchestown....

Friday, 28th April 2023

The pick of the prices at Sandown & Punchestown….

Kitty’s Light remains ahead of the handicapper in tomorrow’s bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown (2.15)….

…. and trainer Christian Williams seeks to swag yet another big pot just a week after his 7yo won the Scottish Grand National….

…. having already won the Eider at Newcastle in February….

It’s a big ask – backing up that last performance at Ayr off such a short turnaround….

…. but connections can take heart from the horse that Kitty’s Light beat into second last weekend – Copper’s Cross….

He ran a blinder just seven days after appearing in the Topham at Aintree….

Admittedly, he didn’t get round at Liverpool – but he did give a bold showing and was going well until he was hampered and fell four fences out….

…. and his exertions didn’t seem to trouble him at Ayr….

Of course, the Topham is run over 2m5f whilst the Scottish Grand National is a 4m event….

…. and Kitty’s Light must go over 3m5f – another stamina sapper – again tomorrow….

If he doesn’t quite find the legs for the job, I don’t think anybody could knock this grand little horse….

…. but the market believes he can go in again – and Kitty’s Light tops the betting at 7/2 this morning….

• The pick of the prices….

Fair enough….

…. but my job isn’t to regurgitate what the market’s already telling you loud and clear. You don’t need me for that….

Instead, my focus – as always – is on digging out a ‘live’ contender that can run a big race at a tasty price….

Ben Pauling’s had a cracking first season at his new yard – fielding 80 winners and playing a big part in Luca Morgan winning the championship for conditional jockeys….

…. and I did really fancy Pauling’s Mucho Mas – a heavily progressive horse in the form of his life coming into the race….

…. but I think the drying ground may have put paid to his chances….

Preference is for MORODER at the general 16s….

He bounced right back to form for trainer Seamus Mullins last time in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster over the 3m2f trip on good ground….

…. showing real fighting spirit in a duel with Undersupervision up the straight and suggesting that a stiffer trip still will play to his strengths….

He might be a 9yo but he certainly hasn’t been over-raced – this will be just his 10th chase….

… and I think he’s overpriced for a horse that’s still operating over fences at a strike rate of 50%+….

He’s reported to have had a few niggles previously – but the Doncaster performance suggests he’s back where connections want him….

He’s a pound out of the handicap – but an effective mark of 136 might not be enough to put the lid on him if he takes to the extra yardage – as I expect him to….

…. and the fact that he’s proven he can handle a sounder surface is also much to his advantage….

• In the Fitzwilliam….

The big handicap at Punchestown on Saturday is the Fitzwilliam Sports Handicap Hurdle (5.30)….

Willie Mullins fields five – and Risk Belle is the one the layers fear most at the general 13/2….

You can see why….

…. she comes into the race on the back of a big-field handicap win at Fairyhouse earlier in the month….

…. having shown up well the time before in the Boodles at the Cheltenham Festival…. 

She’s up 7lb to 134 for the Fairyhouse win and the market reckons she’s good value for it….

Fair enough. But my eye is drawn to HEIA under Paul Townend at the general 11s….

She was a wide margin winner in a novice event at this track last season – for which she went up 7lbs to her current mark of 134….

She seemed to cope adequately with that rise in the valuable Galway Handicap Hurdle in July – when getting competitive and finishing 5/22….

…. and the only time she’s been seen since was when finishing 7/19 (and certainly not disgraced) in another big handicap at Fairyhouse earlier this month….

You’d think that will put her spot on for tomorrow’s assignment….

She finished down the field in the race last year – but I’m not concerned about that….

…. her Galway performance says she’s at home in this kind of event and I’d be very surprised if this hasn’t been her target for some time….

I expect a bold showing….

• Squeaky bum time in the football….

There is no better time to be betting on the football….

Things are really hotting-up as we approach season end….

Fixture lists – across all leagues and major cup competitions – are packed with fiercely competitive games that have plenty riding on them….

The stakes are high….

…. it’s do or die….

…. nerves are jangling….

…. the pressure is on….

…. and right now is the perfect time to be looking out for ‘shock’ results and unexpected outcomes….

…. as some teams fail to cope with expectations….

…. and others find hidden reserves of spirit that turn ‘sure thing’ games into life-and-death dogfights….

In other words – it’s a fantastic time to be looking for value betting opportunities in the football markets….

…. and – with that in mind – you really want to think seriously about taking advantage of this proposition over on the Across the Leagues service….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd