Tuesday, 2nd May 2023
It’s not impossible to win the 2000 Guineas or the 1000 Guineas from out wide on the track – drawn in a high-numbered stall….
The Newmarket track is situated on a heath….
…. horses drawn highest of all in big fields are out in what must feel like vast openness….
…. and there’s no running rail to assist….
And when the field inevitably crabs over to the nearside….
…. the high-drawn horses can get trapped wide without cover and with nothing but daylight in front of them….
Of course, the jockeys concerned have choices….
They might trade momentum for position and drop in behind….
…. or they can put a spurt on and get over to the rail ahead of the field….
…. but neither option is ideal….
The first ignores the fact that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line….
… whilst the second risks using up valuable fuel required at the business end of a mile that’s exceptionally tough on 3yos….
Alternatively, jockeys can stick to the wide route and see what happens as the race pans out….
… a tactic doesn’t always lead to suffering….
Rock of Gibraltar won his 2000 Guineas from stall 22….
…. whilst Golan, Refuse To Bend, Magna Grecia, Footstepsinthesand and Gleneagles won theirs from stalls 19, 18, 17, 17 & 16….
Where the ladies are concerned, Blue Bunting won her 1000 Guineas from out in stall 16….
But facts are facts and the numbers….
…. extracted from the last 23 renewals of both races….
…. tell us that the horses drawn closest to the rail have had the best of it overall….
The table below shows the performance of each stall in all 46 Guineas races run since the turn of the century….
Key: W = win; P = place; TP = Total places; R = Runners; W% = Win strike rate; TP% = Total place strike rate….
Seventeen winners – 36.9% of the total winners over the period – started the race in stalls 1 to 5….
The same group of stalls produced 37 – or 39.8%– of the placed horses too….
17 winners + 37 placed horses = 54 horses that either won or placed….
…. which equates to 38.8% of the total number of horses that either won or placed in either race since 2000….
The table below expresses the important point a little more clearly….
You’ll note that stalls 1 to 5 have an IV (Impact Value) of 1.34.
That means horses in those stalls have produced a win and place performance 34% better than what pure chance would dictate….
You’ll also observe that whilst stalls 6 to 10 have produced pretty much what chance would dictate or expect
…. the higher groups of stalls have underperformed base expectation – by 22% in the case of stalls 11 to 15….
The bottom line is this….
…. the lower band of stalls have had the edge whilst the wider (higher-numbered) stalls have found it more difficult to win and place….
It’s something worth being aware of heading into the weekend….
…. because you can be sure that plenty of punters you’ll be betting against in the market won’t be….
I’ve one more observation to make this morning – and I think it’s an interesting one….
Since the year 2000 seven horses have won a 2000 Guineas or a 1000 Guineas from stall 16 or higher….
I mentioned those horses a little earlier – Rock of Gibraltar, Golan, Refuse To Bend, Magna Grecia, Footstepsinthesand, Gleneagles and Blue Bunting….
Four of those horses were sent off in the top 3 of the betting….
In other words, the market already had those horses down as superior animals – the type most likely to overcome a disadvantageous starting position….
Perhaps more importantly – six of those seven horses were accompanied to the start and throughout the race by true blue-blooded luminaries of the weighing room….
Johnny Murtagh rode Rock Of Gibraltar….
Kieren Fallon rode Golan and Footstepsinthesand….
Pat Smullen rode Refuse To Bend….
Frankie Dettori rode Blue Bunting….
…. and Ryan Moore rode Gleneagles….
From this I think we can tentatively conclude that class outs….
If you’re looking for a horse in this year’s renewals that might have what it takes to overcome a real wide draw – factor in who is onboard….
Top jockeys are top jockeys for a reason. They can get the job done on the big day – even when circumstances appear to be weighed against them….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow….
Meantime – fancy winning a VIP package for the Sky Bet Sunday Series Raceday at Sandown on Sunday 20th August? Enter here….
And – we’ve got a busy week on the racing front – with plenty of races to target. Full lowdown here….
Finally – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
