Wednesday, 3rd May 2023
I have a particular liking for races with idiosyncratic features….
…. races that present horse and jockey with a singular challenge…
…. a unique circumstance to overcome….
…. or some unorthodox condition to deal with….
Such races offer punters opportunities to search for betting value….
…. using angles that wouldn’t apply (or even have relevance) in more conventional contests....
We’re presented with just such a race at Newmarket on Saturday….
…. the Suffolk Stakes – a handicap for horses aged 3yo+ over the straight 9f trip….
Now, of course, 9f isn’t a unique trip….
…. but you don’t get many 9f races run up a straight….
…. and that’s what makes Saturday’s race especially interesting….
Large sections of the market will fail to take this idiosyncratic feature of the race into account….
…. they won’t even think about it.
…. they’ll treat the race just as they do any other….
No problem. That is to my benefit….
By acknowledging the unusual nature of Saturday’s race….
…. focusing on the relevance of its unique feature….
…. and mining the dataset from that perspective….
…. I have every opportunity of gaining an information edge over the market….
Some punters will take the view that a race is a race is a race….
What’s all the fuss about the 9f trip?
What does it matter if it’s up a straight or around a bend?
Fair enough. But – for me – those assessments miss the point….
In the course of an average season, most jockeys will race up a straight mile dozens of times….
…. ditto going 10f around a bend or two. They do it so often they get used to it….
You know how it is when you drive a car….
…. half the time you’re on autopilot….
You’ve driven locally so often you could do it blindfold. It’s subconscious….
But what if you had to do it on the other side of the road? That would be a different test for most of us….
Every decision, every action and every manoeuvre would be conscious….
…. because we lack match practice and confidence on the other side of the road….
We’d be second-guessing all the way. We certainly wouldn’t be on autopilot….
My point is this: jockeys aren’t used to racing up a 9f straight. It isn’t something they do every day of the week….
Even at Newmarket – the one track where there is a 9f straight – there have only been 40 races up it since 2009 with 12+ runners taking part….
In other words, most jockeys will lack match practice in the circumstances Saturday’s race presents….
…. what position to take…. how fast to go…. when to change gear…. when to hold back…. when to press on…. and when to ask for an all-out effort….
….none of it will be second nature….
And jockeys – as a collective – are no different than the rest of us….
….confronted with an unusual challenge, some will adapt and perform better than others….
…. some will excel while others will underachieve….
If my life depended on picking a jockey to get competitive on Saturday, I’d opt for William Buick….
Other jockeys have a volume of experience similar to Buick when it comes to going up the 9f straight in fields of 12+….
…. but none can match his record of achievement….
He’s had 28 qualifying rides since 2010 – three of those horses won and another eight earned punters an each-way return….
…. figures that equating to a win strike rate of 10.7% and a total place strike rate of 39.2%....
…. and that last figure is bordering on stellar….
…. when you consider that 19 of Buick’s 28 qualifying rides were in races with fields of between 16 and 33 runners….
I include 5th and 6th place finishes in the 30+ runner Cambridgeshire on Portage (2015), Kynren (2018) and Dark Vision (2019) in the latter group….
…. because most bookmakers would have been up with Enhanced Place Terms in those races….
You might make the case that Buick just got lucky on the horses he’s been given to ride….
…. Oasis Charm was favourite for the 2018 edition of Saturday’s race….
…. whilst Bronze Angel and Gm Hopkins were both well fancied when winning the Cambridgeshire and the Silver Cambridgeshire in 2012 and 2014 respectively….
…. but – that said – there are not too many steering jobs in handicaps with 16+ runners….
Buick was on good horses for sure – but they still had to be ridden to best effect…..
…. and it’s not like all his placed horses were shorties – four were 14s and bigger….
And let’s not overlook the fact that jockeys don’t tend to fluke rides on good horses….
…. they’re on those good horses because their talents, their ability and their specific skillsets are both recognized and in demand….
You don’t pick just any jockey to ride a horse with a good chance in a big handicap….
…. if you’ve got any sense, you do what you can to obtain the services of one of the jockeys most able to get the job done….
I put William Buick’s record up the 9f straight at Newmarket down to talent rather than good fortune….
For me, he’s the best man for the specific test. He’s ridden the 9f straight at Newmarket to better effect in recent times than any other man in the weighing room.
…. and that that’s something worth knowing – because most of the people you’ll bet against at the weekend won’t….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow….
Meantime – revisit Buick’s win in the 2012 Cambridgeshire on Bronze Angel here….
Finally – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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