Friday 5th May 2023
Lots to get through today….
First – if you missed selections for this afternoon, you’ll find them here….
Second – look out for me in your email box tomorrow morning – I’ll be sending out my picks on Sunday’s card at Newmarket….
Moving swiftly on….
At 6/4 Auguste Rodin dominates the market for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket – tomorrow at 4.40….
…. but let’s not forget that whilst Aidan O’Brien is the most successful trainer in the history of the race….
…. winning it 10 times in total since 1998….
…. including four of the last eight renewals….
…. he’s no stranger to a fancied runner getting turned over either….
I wonder if Auguste Rodin is going to be the latest in that line….
He’s done what’s been asked of him – winning the G2 Champion Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown and then the G1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster….
Fair enough….
But those wins came on soft and heavy – which would have played to his obvious stamina….
I wonder tomorrow – on much faster ground – whether he’ll be quite the same horse over a mile trip that might ultimately prove short of his optimum distance….
Either way, I’m not going to spend too much time deliberating about taking him on….
At 6/4 he’s one to oppose – as a matter of default – for me….
As I wrote earlier in the week, the stats say stalls 1 to 5 are the place to be. And Dettori fans will be delighted to see Chaldean drawn in 3….
But for me the bet is in stall 7 in the shape of Charlie Appleby’s SILVER KNOTT – up at the general 12s this morning….
Unlike quite a few of tomorrow’s participants, he’s proven at the mile trip, and he’s got decent form in the book….
…. his best performance coming in defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf – which he’d have won but for being slow away and too keen early on….
He won’t get away with that tomorrow – but they will have been working on upping his game at home….
Also – crucially – he’s got winning form over track and trip. Newmarket is not straightforward – with the dip and then the climb to the finish….
…. but Silver Knott has already proved he handles the challenge….
…. and I reckon he’s a player tomorrow – under William Buick – at a nice price….
A 23-runner handicap up a 6f straight in early May is probably as close to a lottery as you can get on a race track….
…. and plenty of punters will be unpacking the tungsten steel darts, closing their eyes and preparing to throw at the list of runners and riders….
I imagine a lot of others will be swerving the Howden Handicap at Newmarket – 2.50 tomorrow….
…. but not me….
Faint heart never won fair maiden – or a decent bundle from the bookie – and I’m going to swing the bat at old SUMMERGHAND – up this morning at the general 14s….
He might be a 9yo old now – but the zest was still in evidence at the tail end of last term when he won the Ayr Gold Cup before going close in a G3 at Ascot….
He’s on a winning mark….he loves the track…. he’s been aimed at the race…. …. and the ground is right for him….
Allied to that, I reckon he’s on the right part of the track – drawn high – where he’ll have some of the fancied horses to run at late on….
This race is a proper puzzle, but David O’Meara’s veteran is a class act – as far as handicappers go – and I can see him making his presence felt at the death….
I want to be two-against-the-field in this one – I’ll back both horses to win and forego the chance to play for the place money….
SPIRIT OF LIGHT has been doing most of his running at the 7f trip, but he was an eyecatcher in Meydan when dropped back to 6f in March….
…. and this step back for a first-time crack at the trip in the UK is an interesting proposition at 16s….
…. he’ll get a good pace to run at, the stiff finish will play to his strengths, he’s had cheekpieces applied for the first time which might well improve him….
…. and he’s another one on the right part of the track for my money….
The market’s found the king of the 9f strip – William Buick – and his mount King of Conquest in the Suffolk Stakes at 3.25….
No matter because I want to back Jack Channon’s MAJESTIC at the general 9s & 8s….
He was my take out horse from the Lincoln – where he finished 4/22 beaten 3.5 lengths….
…. suggesting he hasn’t finished improving after being put up 7lb for winning last season’s Cambridgeshire over tomorrow’s course and distance….
This is his trip and I imagine that this has been the early-season target….
In tomorrow’s Thirsk Hunt Cup – at 3.40 – I’m having a swing of the bat and backing Karl Burke’s EILEAN DUBH to bounce back to form at 16s….
He’s the price he is because he’s done nothing in two runs this term – but he was entitled to his Wolverhampton run and he was up against with the draw at Doncaster in the Spring Mile….
He was progressive last term - beating Blue For You at York in receipt of 3lbs….
That one subsequently won a good handicap at York’s Ebor meeting and is now rated 102
…. so there’s an argument that Burke’s 5yo should have a bit more to offer off his current mark of 94….
He’s got to bounce back – for sure. But what I like about tomorrow – and the price – is the return to a turning track on better ground….
He could go plenty better than the market believes….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 4.40 @ Newmarket….
e/w terms = it’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. In the 2.50 @ Newmarket….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Unibet & Livescore are 1/5 the first 6…. In the 3.25 @ Newmarket….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. it’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the 3.40 @ Thirsk….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. it’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with my picks for Newmarket on Sunday….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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