The pick of the prices at Newmarket....

Saturday, 6th May 2023

The pick of the prices at Newmarket….

There’s a big day ahead of us – with the 2000 Guineas being run at Newmarket this afternoon….

…. along with the big-field Howden Handicap over 6f and the Suffolk Stakes up the 9f strip….

…. as well as the Thirsk Hunt Cup over the turning mile up in Yorkshire….

I sent out my selections for this afternoon’s action yesterday. If you missed that email, you can catch up here….

This morning, the focus is on a brace of races being run at Newmarket tomorrow afternoon….

…. the 1000 Guineas for the fillies….

…. and the Howden Handicap – run over the 14f trip….

Let’s get down to it….

• In the 1000 Guineas….

The first thing to say is that Newmarket looks set to see plenty of rain later today and throughout the small hours of Sunday morning….

The going is described as good right now – but it’s likely to be on the softer side by the time racing starts tomorrow….

It’s always a bit of a guessing game with the weather – but I’m working on the principal that the forecasts are correct….

…. and my feeling is that the market will only move further towards the front two in the betting – Tahiyra and Meditate – as both have form on softer ground….

If I were to pick between those two, I’d opt for Meditate….

First, because Meditate is proven at the mile….

…. second because Tahiyra’s preparations for the race have not been 100% on plan.

…. and third because I’m mindful Mediate beat Tahiyra 2.5 lengths on soft ground at the Curragh last September – albeit over 7f….

But it’s immaterial in any case – because this column is not about putting up fancied horses the market has already lumped on solid….

My job is to dig something out which can run a bigger race than market sentiment suggests….

I’m putting on my ‘No Fear’ baseball cap and having a proper swing of the bat in this one tomorrow afternoon….

• A no-fear punt….

Softer ground will blunt speed and put a real premium on stamina….

The Newmarket mile is no easy touch for these young horses – it takes some getting….

…. Kieran Fallon once described the Guineas as a ‘war’ for young horses….

If you don’t stay, you will get found out. Especially on cut….

…. and there aren’t too many in tomorrow’s field proven at the mile trip….

Ben Pauling’s POLLY POTT has more experience at the mile than anything else in the field

…. and she handles soft ground – as she showed in the May Hill at Doncaster last term….

She doesn’t have the same aura of class that some of these might have.

…. but in tough conditions she might very well have more in the way of grit….

…. and that could be very handy at the death tomorrow afternoon when the speed horses are running on fumes….

The bottom line is that I reckon she’s overpriced at the 66s….

…. and makes for a sound – albeit admittedly speculative – each-way wager….

• In the Howden….

The Howden at 1.50 is a trappy affair….

…. but I’m going to side with Andrew Balding’s BERKSHIRE ROCCO at the general 14s & 12s….

He was a little disappointing at Newcastle last time but off a mark of 100….

…. when you consider on his last two goes on turf he was rated 114 and 110….

…. he’s going to be very dangerous if or when Andrew Balding gets him right….

I can’t know how straight he’ll be tomorrow – I am not privy to inside information from Balding’s yard….

…. but on his best figures he’s well ahead of plenty of these….

…. he does have some form with soft conditions underfoot….

…. plus he stays further and that won’t do him any harm on rain-soaked ground….

If he puts his best foot forward tomorrow then he could be well-handicapped enough to be in the mix at the finish….

• The last word….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd