The pick of the prices on Day 2 at Epsom....

Friday, 2nd June 2023

The pick of the prices on Day 2 at Epsom….

Today is Day 1 of the Derby meeting at Epsom….

…. which means the Oaks over the 12f trip….

…. plus the Racehorse Lotto Handicap over the extended mile trip…

…. and the Betfred Handicap over the 10f trip….

I sent out my betting advice for this afternoon’s races yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here….

I go out early doors with my advice in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about my race selections….

Sometimes it comes off. Other times it doesn’t….

… but because I go out early with my selections, we’re always a little ahead of the game here at ATC….

The flag hasn’t been raised on Day 1 – and I’m already thinking about Day 2….

…. which means the Derby….

…. the Dash – contested over the fastest 5f strip in the country….

…. and the JRA Tokyo Trophy – contested over the turning 6f trip….

Let’s crack on….

• In the Dash – 3.20….

I’m two-against the field in tomorrow’s Dash – backing two on-the-nose and foregoing the chance to land place money….

Some readers don’t like it when I do this – but I play the way I play and can do no other….

If you just want to back the one then go with LIHOU at 12s under Hollie Doyle….

He might be 7 now but he’s nevertheless is on the up. He posted his best effort in more than 2-years last time at Goodwood….

… and I note that after he won over tomorrow’s course and distance in April, jockey Rossa Ryan reported that connections had ‘just figured out the secret to him….’

That was on softer ground, but I’m not concerned about this lad back on a sound surface. Not at all….

He handles the idiosyncratic track, he’s got a plum draw on the high side, and he has Doyle aboard – which is never a bad thing. I expect a bold show….

VINTAGE CLARETS at 12s is my second pick….

He’s been a frustrating horse who never really managed to build on his 3rd in the Coventry back in 2021….

…. but he’s still only 4 and he’s definitely improved since being gelded…

…. he’s not handicapped out of it on a mark of 90….

…. and I’m interested in seeing him back on a quick surface after a handful of runs on softer….

Connections earmarked this race as a target at the start of the season – thinking the race a good fit for his natural speed…..

…. and he does possess plenty of that raw resource – ideal on this downhill quick strip….

He travels well, he’s drawn well – in box 19 – and he enjoys the services of Oisin Murphy in the saddle…. 

If he puts it together he can finally land a big one….

• In the JRA Tokyo Trophy – 5.05….

This looks trappy….

Mr Wagyu won the race last year off 94 and has obvious claims off 96 – having been dropped 10lb in the rankings since last July….

He ran a nice enough race last time at York in the Churchill Tyres Handicap – and he won’t mind the ground….

There’s much to like about the horse – trained by John Quinn whose won the race twice in the last 10-years….

Probe too is likeable – having won a proper big handicap pot last time out at Newmarket. Will 7lbs put the stopper on him?

Who knows – and I won’t spend too much time thinking on it….

…. because it’s my job to be putting up favs. I have to look further down the list….

That said the one I like most is HAYMAKER at 7s – hardly the biggest price on the boards – but it is what it is….

He’s up 5lbs – and up in class – following his win last time in a C3 handicap at Windsor….

…. but he’s the youngest horse in tomorrow’s field and – as such – probably the one open to most natural improvement….

He left the stalls a little awkwardly at Windsor and he ran keen for a long way – which wouldn’t have helped jockey Rob Havlin….

…. but that’s not so unusual for this 4yo and he stuck to his task well – having hit the front 2f out….

Whilst the second horse was blocked by a hanging rival before running on and eating into Haymaker’s lead….

…. it looked to me like it was comfortable enough for Hughie Morrison’s horse – and that he can rate higher still….

He certainly won’t mind the quick ground, he remains relatively unexposed at the trip, and we know he’s fit and in-form….

• In the Derby – 1.30….

Finally, the Derby is a pretty open affair this time around….

Auguste Rodin and Military Order have drifted a little….

Arrest – the Frankie factor at work? – has contracted a little whilst Passenger has remained relatively steady in the betting….

Each of those market principals will have staunch supporters – and you could make a case for and against each of them….

The Nick Pullen coin will be invested on SPREWELL at the general 11s….

He handled the step up in trip and class in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown with aplomb….

…. improving and winning in decisive fashion….

I liked the way he finished his race and he can improve again for the extra quarter mile tomorrow….

He’s never raced on anything better than soft ground. I can see why that might be a worry for some punters – and might well be an influence on current prices….

…. but he’s a low moving horse and he might very well improve for a quicker surface….

I think he’ll handle the track tomorrow too – another key consideration. He ran on debut at Gowran Park where it’s up hill and down dale – and produced a taking performance on that day – albeit in defeat….

It is the O’Brien, Gosden, Appleby and Stoute horses that lead the way in the betting….

I suspect that if Sprewell – with as strong a figure in the book at 10f+ as anything in the race – were trained by any of those he’d be shorter….

Instead – trained by Jessica Harrington – he’s the pick of the prices for my money….

• The last word….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose, or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd