Wednesday, 12th July 2023
The bulk of the top-level handicap racing this week is on Friday & Saturday….
Newmarket’s July meeting gets underway tomorrow though….
…. and it’s a gentle-enough start for handicap punters with just the one C2 big-field handicap to focus on….
The bet365 Handicap is a 6f race for the 3yo horses – and 17 go to post….
It’s inconceivable that the track won’t see at least some rain at some point today – and there are showers (along with sunshine) forecast for all three days of the meeting….
Right now it doesn’t look like heavy rain. But the weather maps are a totally unreliable guide at their very best and thunderstorms – where they will land, when, and how laden – are notoriously unpredictable….
One drawback of going out early and trying to bag the best of the prices about my selections – as I do – is that there are elements and variables left to chance….
There are things I can’t know…. scenarios yet to unfold…. situations yet to develop…. circumstances yet to change….
But that’s the way of it. I’d rather try and get my man at double figures than wait until the death – when there’s more information – and get him at 7s….
Sometimes that go-early approach works for me. Sometimes it works against me. It’s rough and smooth….
…. but there’s not much I can do about it. I just have to accept that there will be occasions when the weather or some other variable torpedoes me below the waterline….
Right now the track at Newmarket is described as good to firm (good in places)….
I’m backing TOUGH ENOUGH at the general 12s & 11s in tomorrow’s bet365 Handicap at 3.00….
His efforts as a juvenile earned him an opening handicap mark of 83….
…. and he struck on seasonal debut at Windsor last month….
Travelling towards the rear of the field early doors, he didn’t get a clear passage….
…. but once he got the gap inside the final half-furlong….
…. he finished with a burst and won with a degree of comfort that suggests a 4lb rise to 87 won’t be sufficient to apply the stopper….
He’d been expected to run in the big 6f sprint for 3yos run at York less than fortnight later – a race in which fast-improving Quinault beat Washington Heights (both horses reoppose tomorrow)….
He was fancied for the race too – trading at the top end of the ante-post market with the winner, the second and Catch The Paddy….
In the end he wasn’t declared – perhaps the race came too soon – and he meets the winner and the second tomorrow on 5lb and 4lb better terms than would have been the case up at York….
…. and at a much bigger price than both….
He’s around and about them on the track tomorrow too – in stall 10. Both those York horses can be expected to contribute to the pace from stalls 11 and 12 – along with Redemption Time in 8 and Executive Decision in 14….
Bottom line: I think my man’s in the right place and will get a sound tow into the business end of proceedings….
This assignment will be tougher than any he’s faced previously – but he’s at the right end of the handicap; he’s going the right way; he’s entitled to come on for his first run; and he’s better than his mark….
I’m assuming Rossa Ryan isn’t in the plate because he can’t do the 8-05. But I’m happy with Hayley Turner as a replacement – her sole ride on the card….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bet for tomorrow…. In the 3.00 @ Newmarket….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back tomorrow with my selections for the racing on Friday….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose, or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned.
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