The pick of the prices on Day 2 at Newmarket....

Thursday, 13th July 2023

The pick of the prices on Day 2 at Newmarket….

Today is Day 1 at Newmarket’s July meeting….

…. which for handicap punters means the bet365 Handicap – a 6f sprint for the 3yos….

I sent out my betting advice for this afternoon’s race yesterday – find it here….

I go out early doors with my advice in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about my selections….

Sometimes it comes off. Other times it doesn’t….

… but because I go out early, we’re always a little ahead of the game here at ATC….

The flag hasn’t been raised on Day 1 – and I’m already thinking about Day 2 which means ….

…. the 6 Horse Challenge At bet365 Handicap – a race for the 3yos over the 10f trip….

…. the bet365 Trophy – a race over the 1m6f trip for horses aged 4yo+

.... and up at York – the William Hill Epic Value Handicap over the 7f trip….

The forecast at Newmarket is mixed – sunny spells today with the possibility of showers; and light rain forecast from mid-morning on Friday….

Right now, the going is good to firm (good in places) – after track officials watered on Tuesday (11mm) and Wednesday (8mm)….

Onward….

• In the 6 Horse Challenge – 1.50….

I’m backing DAYZEE at 14s in the 6 Horse Challenge Handicap at 1.50….

It’s rare you get every factor in your favour when playing at prices in these handicaps – and this filly will need to overcome a wide draw….

But there’s plenty of upside at the price in a race in which pretty much everything is unexposed….

…. pretty much everything is stepping it up in terms of competitivity and class of opposition….

…. and pretty much everything will improve and progress….

The step up to 10f last time at Salisbury – on quick ground and off a break – produced a much-improved winning performance….

Dayzee did that off 79 and she’s now 87 – but that revised mark might still underestimate her….

She had a Gosden horse in behind at the Wiltshire track – Spring Fever. They drew 7l lengths clear of the rest….

…. and Spring Fever – conceding 2lb to Dayzee at Salisbury – produced a 3-figure RPR when winning readily (and with more in hand still) next time at Newmarket (stepping up to 12f) – and now rates 95….

Dayzee is potentially well handicapped on 87 and can outrun her price tomorrow….

• In the bet365 Trophy – 3.00….

I’m backing AIMERIC at 9/2 in the bet365 Trophy at 3.00….

I backed Roger Varian’s gelding in the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot where he finished 8/18….

I thought he ran a decent race that day – getting squeezed for room before producing a good finishing effort up the far rail without threatening to quite get there….

He gave me the impression he’ll appreciate the extra quarter mile tomorrow afternoon….

He’s the lightly-race youngster in the line-up….

…. a horse Varian describes as being on ‘the upgrade’….

…. and he’s up against several opponents that haven’t cut it at this level….

In short, he’s poised to give it a big go under James Doyle – who rode the horse at Ascot and gets the gig for the second time. I reckon it’s a case of unfinished business….

• In the William Hill Epic Value – 2.05….

I’m backing VAFORTINO at 11/2 in the William Hill Epic Value at York at 2.05….

He’s rarely out of the money in races of this standard and – on his day – he’s plenty better than most if not all tomorrow’s opponents….

Northern Express is favourite and he’s gone well the last twice – but he’s crept up the rankings again in defeat and that won’t help….

Another Investment is well-fancied on the back of three good performances over course and distance – but he’s up 11lb for his last-time-out win and will need to find another level again….

Vafortino’s last time out effort in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot – 10/29 and beaten 5-lengths doesn’t look too hot

…. but he was short of room when coming with his run and wasn’t asked to go to the well once his chance had gone….

A mark of 102 is not beyond him and with rain forecast – he likes a little moisture underfoot – he can run a big one….

• The last word….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on Saturday’s big handicaps….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose, or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd