Where do you want to start at Ayr?

Tuesday, 19th September 2023

Where do you want to start at Ayr?

The Bronze Cup (Friday), Silver Cup and Gold Cup (both Saturday) are all run up Ayr’s 6f straight....

Connections will already be thinking about where they’d like their horses to start from….

….  a low, high, or middle stall….

Punters will consider the same issue….

….. trying to figure out which part of the track might prove advantageous....

Some will use Friday’s Bronze Cup as a reconnaissance mission for Saturday….

…. hoping to secure advance intelligence as the race unfolds….

…. seeking to identify favoured parts of the track....

…. and who can argue with that approach?

• The contrarian approach….

Part of the contrarian approach at ATC is to look at information other punters aren’t looking at….

…. or to look at publicly accessible information from a different angle....

I thought it might be interesting to view previous editions of the three sprints collectively….

…. to determine how individual stalls have performed across the board....

The exercise might bear fruit….

…. or not….

…. we won’t know until we look....

There’ve been 13 renewals of the Bronze since 2009….

….19 of the Silver….

…. and 20 Ayr-run of the Gold….

That’s 52 races and 53 winners….

…. because the 2018 edition of the Gold produced a dead heat....

• Individual stall performance....

The table below shows the performance of individual stalls….

…. in terms of wins and placers....

I’ve included the 6th horse (in races with 20+ runners) as a placer….

…. because plenty of firms offer those enhanced terms....

Here’s the breakdown....

• Instant observations....

If you want a ‘magic stall’ then 4 and 8 are strong contenders having produced five winners apiece. Stall 2 has produced four winners….

If you want the ‘most-competitive’ stall then 15 is interesting….

…. with 2 winners and 18 placers from 52 runners at a total place strike rate of 38.5%.

Stalls 4 and 25 score high on this measure too....

But that’s all fun and games….

…. more statistical anomaly than something to rely on….

Better instead to look at stall numbers in blocks….

…. low, middle, and high….

…. but we’re doing it a little differently….

We used to get 28 runners in these races – but not now….

The maximum field size for these races now stands at 25 runners….

…. and we’ll consider the figures thus: low (stalls 1 to 8), middle (stalls 9 to 17) and high (stalls 18 to 25)….

The results appear below....

…. and what’s clear from even the most cursory review of this table is this….

…. horses produce win and place performances from all parts of the track….

…. there’s no overtly obvious stall advantage on view....

Having produced 21 actual race winners….

…. and winners being the name of the game….

…. you might argue that the low side of the draw is the place to be....

Perhaps – but here’s something else to consider….

The table below highlights the performances of stalls 1 to 5 and stalls 21 to 25….

…. the top- and the bottom-5 stalls….

Those 10 stalls produced 23 of our 49 winners – and plenty of placers….

…. and what this tells us is that being drawn on a wing – close to a rail – is no bad thing….

• What does all the prove?

I’m not sure what – if anything at all – I’ve proved or unproven with today’s  number crunching….

…. probably not much, truth be told....

But that’s how it is with these kinds of exercises….

…. you pan the water and see what emerges....

Sometimes you find nuggets of gold you can use….

…. occasionally you’re not much wiser for the experience….

…. most times you just get bits of intelligence that won’t point directly to winners….

…. but which give you information to factor into your thinking....

… information that most of the market doesn’t have an informed opinion about….

…. and that’s probably where we are today....

• Finally….

That’s all for now….

Back tomorrow….

Meantime – watch last year’s renewal of the Bronze….

…. and – review last terms editions of the Silver and Gold….

Also – review upcoming target races on ATC….

Finally – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

P.S. “You could run this race 22 times and get 22 different winners.” That’s owner Steve De Lemos talking about Saturday’s Portland. He’s probably right – highlighting what we’re always up against in the most competitive top-level handicap races….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd