Wednesday, 20th September 2023
If you’re digging out your own bets for Saturday’s Gold Cup….
…. here are some observations you might find useful….
One – Gold Cup winners generally haven’t shown their hand during the season leading up to the race….
By that I mean the winner hasn’t typically been stacking up wins….
…. and shooting up the official rating scale as a consequence….
Plenty save their best for the big day….
…. last season’s winner Summerghand turned up 1/7….
…. 2021 winner Bielsa was 0/5….
The Gold Cup is both prestigious and valuable….
…. it’s a race trainers target well in advance….
…. plenty of horses turn up with handicap marks that have been protected….
…. and plenty have had preparations structured for this specific day….
Those horses are at an advantage over those targeted at big races earlier in the summer….
…. 10 of the last 15 winners had won just once or not at all during the build-up to Ayr…
Two – the market’s been on the ball….
…. short horses have been hot property in the Gold Cup over the last couple of decades….
Since 2002 there have been 48 horses sent off at 8s or shorter….
…. and between them they produced 5 winners and 18 placers – a total place strike rate of almost 50%....
That’s good going….
…. and Placepot players should take note….
Three – stamina is key….
The race is run over 6f but the evidence suggests your horse should stay further….
…. since 2001 only four winners hadn’t already won or proved fully effective over 7f ….
…. and that quartet won when the emphasis was more on speed than stamina
…. because the ground was good or quicker….
I don’t think it’s going to be proper good ground or quicker this weekend….
Four – some key pointers/splitters to bear in mind….
Just one horse older than 6 has won the Gold Cup since Hard To Figure in 1993 – Summerghand last year….
We’ve seen just two 3yo winners since 2002….
…. but don’t read too much into that as just 13 have turned out since 2015….
…. 19/23 winners had raced within the last 5-weeks….
…. and 21/23 winners had appeared at least 10 times on a racecourse….
Trainers are creatures of habit….
…. and whilst I accept that what happened yesterday is no certain guide to what will unfold tomorrow….
…. I think it’s reasonable to work on the assumption that what’s frequently happened before might very well happen again….
And if you’re working on that assumption in connection with Saturday’s Gold Cup….
…. then Kevin Ryan simply has to show up on your radar….
…. his record in the race over the last two decades demands it….
Old Dandy Nicholls won the race an incredible 6 times between 2000 and 2010….
…. and if Ryan were to win the race again on Saturday he would match that tally….
…. having already saddled 5 winners in this race….
…. Advanced (2007), Our Jonathan (2011), Captain Raimus (2012), Brando (2016), and Bielsa (2021)….
Ryan hasn’t managed to produce his race wins in the same tight timeframe as Nicholls….
…. but then he could hardly be expected to….
…. and his record – in one of the most competitive sprints on the programme – is plenty fine in its own right….
This time around his running options include….
…. Bielsa – winner in 2021 off a mark just a pound lower than his current rating….
…. Magical Spirit – winner of the Silver Cup in 2020 – who must defy age-related stats….
…. and – the one I’m really sweet on – Aleezdancer….
…. whose had a sparing campaign and who looks like he’s been targeted at this race from a long way out….
Each runner Ryan gets into the race is worthy of very close inspection….
While Kevin Ryan has been very much the main man in the feature race of the Ayr sprint trilogy….
…. Richard Fahey is the man whose picked up most of the pieces in the lesser races – the Silver Cup and the Bronze Cup….
He’s not done too bad in the Gold Cup as it goes – producing 2 winners and 11 placers over the last two decades….
…. a record that stands up against most over the period….
But his best results – his most frequent hauls – have been produced in the supporting races….
…. with 3 winners and 8 placers in the Silver Cup….
…. and another 3 winners and 5 placers in the Bronze Cup….
Perhaps this is just happenstance….
…. or perhaps Ryan is just better at getting his better sprinters to fire on the big day….
…. or perhaps Fahey is good at seeing to it that his better – or best-handicapped horses – get in lesser races….
Who knows. There are probably 101 arguments you might make as to why Fahey does so well in the Silver and Bronze events….
…. and you might still never get to the heart of it….
But no matter – the numbers don’t tells lies….
Fahey does do well in those lesser races – and that’s the point to be mindful heading into a big weekend in the North….
That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – go here if you missed yesterday’s spadework on the effects of the draw in the Ayr sprint trilogy….
…. also – credit where it’s due – race sponsors Virgin are doing their bit for the people behind the scenes who make racing work and who look after the horses we all love….
…. and – in case you don’t know – the draw for the Gold Cup will be covered live on Racing TV at 11am tomorrow….
…. finally – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
P.S. Go here for the latest on the weather and ground conditions at Ayr….
Stay tuned….
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