Friday, 22nd September 2023
It’s a busy Saturday….
…. with big handicaps at Ayr and Newbury….
The Gold Cup is the big feature in Scotland….
…. supported by the Silver Cup and the Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Handicap….
Down at Newbury – we have the Dubai Duty Free Handicap….
There’s a lot to get through….
… so without further ado….
…. let’s crack on….
Like I said earlier in the week, Kevin Ryan is the top man in the Gold Cup (3.35)….
…. and I’ve been sweet on his ALEEZDANCER for this one almost all season….
He needs ease in the ground and we wouldn’t have seen him in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood – where he ran a cracker – had it not been heavy going that week….
He’ll need to do it tomorrow off a break – but that’s not a problem….
…. he’s been prepared with this specific race in mind and I expect him to be at concert pitch….
…. and let’s not forget that he won at the first time of asking at Doncaster back in April….
He went up to a mark of 100 for that win but is back down now to 95 – just 2lb in advance of that last winning mark….
He’s drawn on the low wing – and there are worse places to be as I pointed out on Tuesday….
He can go deep and the 12s is a fair price about a big contender….
In the Silver Cup (2.25)….
APLOMB has looked ready to strike in both races since returning from his midsummer lay-off….
Both times – at Redcar and at Goodwood – he was switched off and travelling well at the rear of proceedings….
…. before igniting late and making up loads of ground in eye-catching fashion….
On different days he might have won either race had he gotten out from behind – or from in amongst – horses just a shade quicker….
…. underlining the fact that he’ll need things to drop just right tomorrow – coming late in a massive field….
On the upside he’s nicely weighted on a mark of 81 – he’s not been penalised for those last two performances….
…. and given he was 6th in this race last year from a mark of 89 – going into the race straight off the back of his midsummer break….
…. he’s not badly priced-up at all at this morning’s 14s & 12s….
This is his big seasonal target – that’s my take – and I expect a big run….
George Boughey’s KOY KOY is a very fresh horse for this time of the season….
…. and he’s the bet – at the general 13/2 – in the Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Handicap at Ayr (1.15)….
He was said to be Boughey’s main hope for the Lincoln over the winter….
…. and reading between the lines he wants some cut in the ground…
…. and he’s thought capable of winning a proper pot by connections….
…. so tomorrow’s contest should be within his compass….
He turns out on a career high mark of 99 having been put up 6lb for an AW win at Wolverhampton earlier this month….
He won that race comfortably enough – pulling away powerfully entering the straight and eased down in the late stages….
…. and there’s more to come….
He’s a player at a reasonable price….
MILLEBOSC is the rag in tomorrow’s Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury (2.40)….
…. but I reckon he can outrun this morning’s 14s & 12s….
…. and that he represents a bit of value….
You might argue that he’s been a bit of a disappointment since joining William Haggas from France….
…. but has that case really been conclusively proven at this point?
I’m not so sure. His British debut in the John Smith’s Cup at York was perfectly creditable….
…. his next run at Goodwood probably came too soon….
…. and last weekend at Doncaster the early pace was way too pedestrian for a middle-distance horse dropping back to the mile – and he never got into the race….
I don’t think we’ve yet had chance to see the 5yo at his best….
…. and he’s dropped 5lb in the handicap to 92 – which makes him dangerous….
He produced some very good form back in the day in France – finishing 3rd in a G1 behind St Mark’s Basilica and Sealiway on soft ground….
…. and he won his maiden there on heavy….
He’s going to need to turn up tomorrow under a first-time James Doyle ride but he might just be underestimated – both at the weights and at the prices….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 3.35 @ Ayr….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. William Hill, bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, Unibet, Betfred, BetUK, & Livescore are 1/5 the first 6…. In the 2.25 @ Ayr….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, Betfred & Livescore are 1/5 the first 6…. In the 1.15 @ Ayr….
e/w terms = It’s 1/5 the first 3 across the board…. In the 2.40 @ Newbury….
e/w terms = It’s 1/5 the first 3 across the board…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
P.S. Click here to find out who I’m backing in this afternoon’s Bronze Cup (3.25).
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