The pick of the prices at Newmarket, Haydock & Longchamp....

Friday, 28th September 2023

The pick of the prices at Newmarket, Haydock & Longchamp….

When confronted with a 35-runner handicap like tomorrow’s Cambridgeshire at Newmarket (3.40)….

…. where you could make a plausible case for about 25 of them….

…. I kind of get where some readers are coming from when they ask why I don’t focus on easier races….

But where would be the fun in that?

I’m one of those punters who enjoys the puzzle that these big-field handicaps represent….

…. I like the challenge….

…. and I love the buzz that comes with calling it right – or somewhere near right….

…. in a conundrum that appeared nigh-on impossible to solve beforehand….

Roger Charlton’s Greek Order is the warm favourite for tomorrow’s race after smashing a C3 field at Newbury last time out….

He’s up 10lb for that to a mark of 95 but the way he won suggests this 3yo – fresh off the Juddmonte production line – could be the proverbial Group horse in a handicap….

He’s way too short for me to consider backing in a race like this – but anybody can see why he’s proved such a popular order in the ante-post betting….

The prices suggest it’s going to be something resembling a coronation – but these races are rarely so straightforward….

…. and I’m more than happy to take him on in his first go at this level and his first go in a field of this nature….

• Two against the field in the Cambridgeshire – 3.40….

Trainer Roger Charlton has a second runner – MERLIN THE WIZARD – and I like the 14s about him….

Like his stablemate, he too is a lightly-raced 3yo….

…. and he produced a career-best performance in taking fashion on the July course last time when returned to the mile trip….

He stuck on real strong at the end – giving the distinct impression that tomorrow’s extra yardage will suit….

…. and the form of that race hasn’t worked out too badly….

There’s more to come, he’s drawn on the right side of the track and he can run a big one….

He’d be my NAP if you like to bet the one selection….

…. but I want to be two-against-the-field in this cavalry charge….

…. and my second selection is Alan King’s PARADIAS at the 28s & 25s….

Last time at York the 12f trip clearly stretched him….

…. the time before at Goodwood over the turning 10f trip – off tomorrow’s mark of 95 – he was 4th in a Chesterfield Cup that’s worked out really well….

…. with principal runners showing up strongly in big Heritage handicaps and – in the case of Pride of America – a Listed race….

The Goodwood race was contested on an easier surface….

…. and I reckon tomorrow’s trip on quicker ground will be perfect for Alan King’s charge – and he’s a big price….

• In the 5f handicap at Haydock – 2.40….

He’s 6lb higher on the official rating scale now….

… but with a course and distance win to his name – achieved on heavy ground as recently as August….

…. Manila Scouse could be the one to beat in the Dapper Dash For Cash Handicap at Haydock tomorrow (2.40)….

He’s up at 4s – with only Proverb ahead of him in the betting….

…. but my preference at the prices is for old boy ARECIBO at the 11s….

It’s well over two years since he finished with his head in front….

…. a losing streak that weighs in at 26 runs….

…. but he’s produced some decent efforts this term in defeat….

…. and whilst he isn’t the force he once was – earning a career high mark of 113….

….  he might well retain enough speed and enthusiasm for the game to take advantage of a mark of 88 – a career low….

…. especially on very soft ground that won’t suit some of the runners in this small field….

If he’s ever going to win again for Robert Cowell – then surely it’s going to be off a much-diminished mark such as this….

…. and I like the Jason Hart booking. He’s never ridden the horse before – but he has better numbers in the book at Haydock than any other rider in tomorrow’s field….

• In the Arc – Sunday, 3.05….

On Sunday we have the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp (3.05)….

Despite what you might be reading about the French interpretation of ground conditions at the track (soft)….

…. you have to bear in mind that the French version of soft is more like good to soft ground over here….

…. and – with the sun shining over Paris – Sunday’s renewal is likely to be run on proper decent ground….

Three of the last five winners of an Arc run on good ground went off at 9/2 or shorter – compared with just one from five going in shorter than 7s when conditions were more testing ….

… suggesting that good ground renders the race more predictable – and that the shorter horses are of most interest this weekend….

That said racing’s no fun when you’re simply following the crowd (that’s my take)….

…. and I’m doing my usual – taking on the shorties as a matter of default and swinging the bat at the prices….

I’m backing the German colt FANTASTIC MOON at the 14s & 12s….

Last time in the Prix Niel – over track and trip – he burst through the key 120 ceiling on RPRs with a ready win that suggests there’s more to come….

…. backing up his earlier win in the G1 Deutsches Derby in Hamburg….

The ground has turned in his favour….

…. so much so connections supplemented him for the race…. 

For sure he’s got some to find with the older and more experienced horses….

…. but he’s younger

…. he’s had fewer opportunities to show exactly what his level is….

…. and he’s on a proper upward curve coming into the race….

The German raider is a fair bet at the price….

• Finally….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd