Friday, 13th October 2023
The rain fell overnight as forecast….
It’s soft ground at Newmarket now….
…. good to soft at York….
…. and set to ease further still with rain still falling steadily over the track as I write….
I factored the change of ground conditions into my deliberations for this afternoon’s races….
…. and hopefully my selections are on the right side of things….
Let’s crack on….
The Cesarewitch – Newmarket 2.40 – has been the stated aim for Alan King’s TRITONIC….
…. ever since he proved his stamina beyond doubt in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting in June….
He was 3rd that afternoon – beaten just 2.5 lengths by Ahorsewithnoname – and was keeping on strong at the end…..
He’s only had two runs since….
…. something wasn’t right at Goodwood….
…. but he bounced back last time at Haydock over the 14f trip – which is probably short enough for him….
…. and you’d think that outing would have cherry ripe for tomorrow’s assignment….
He’s got form on the track at Newmarket – and that’s a plus….
I was worried a little by the rain….
…. but he does have winning from over hurdles on soft ground….
…. a fine day is forecast tomorrow – which will dry things out a little….
…. and connections report themselves unfazed by soft ground….
They know the horse better than I do and if they’re not concerned, I’m happy to roll the dice at this morning’s 28s & 25s….
I want to be two-handed in this 34-runner puzzle….
…. and my second pick is Noel Meade’s Irish raider JESSE EVANS at the 12s….
…. 4th in last month’s Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh….
… having been beaten just a head in the Galway Plate in August….
…. and having won the Kingdom Gold Cup at Killarney in between times….
…. he’s in a rich patch of form….
He travels well, finds plenty, and should relish conditions tomorrow….
With the ground on the soft side….
I reckon MAGICAL SPIRIT is a big price at 33s for the Coral Sprint Trophy – York 2.25)….
He’s an in-and-out type of horse….
…. and a quick flip through his form record tells you that he’s saved his very best efforts for soft ground at Doncaster….
…. but he does have York form….
…. and on a mark of 93 he’s weighted to be very competitive on a going day….
Julie Camacho’s TITIAN is fair price at 14s in the Bet Bundles Handicap – York 3.35….
…. back on easier surface – which has helped him produce his best efforts over a mile this term….
…. and stepped back up to the 10f trip – which could still eek out progression….
He’s a course and distance winner – having landed the Finale Handicap at this meeting last term….
…. at a big price too….
He did that of a mark of 83 – and runs off 84 tomorrow
Graham Lee – onboard in the Spring Cup (2/22) and last time at Redcar (3/16) – gets the nod in the saddle….
He could run a hell of a lot better than his price suggests….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 2.40 @ Newmarket….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 8. Paddy Power & Livescore are 1/5 the first 7. It’s 1/5 the first 6 generally…. In the 2.25 @ York….
e/w terms = Sky Bet, bet365 & Livescore are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the 3.35 @ York….
e/w terms = Sky Bet & Betfair Sportsbook are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
