The pick of the prices at Cheltenham on Saturday....

Friday, 17th November 2023

The pick of the prices at Cheltenham on Saturday….

ANGELS BREATH at the general 11s is the pick of the prices for me in tomorrow’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham (2.20)….

He’s had more than his fair share of problems – no doubt about that – appearing out on the track just three times since 2019….

Back in the day (trained by Nicky Henderson) he was a smart prospect over fences – winning two quality novice events….

…. and giving a beating to Kim Bailey’s First Flow off level weights in the process….

That one is currently rated 158 and has been up on a rung as high as 166….

…. and whilst I don’t know if Angels Breath – still only a 9yo – will ever rate quite that high or what his various troubles might have taken out of him….

….  a current mark of 144 – an ideal sort of perch for past winners of this race –definitely gets my radar beeping….

And I reckon Sam Thomas and connections retain big faith in this horse….

…. first off, they’ve stuck with him through his troubles – showing great patience and fortitude….

…. he’s not been a cheap or ‘fun’ horse to own….

…. and to show that level of commitment they must believe he can still land a big pot – and recoup capital investment….

To illustrate my point – just look at how Thomas brought the horse him back last term….

…. not seen for more than three years Angels Breath was pitched straight into the G2 Silviniaco Conti at Kempton….

…. there was no messing about in a race or two to help him find his feet. Instead, it was straight down to business….

…. and he was well-fancied to boot – after all that lost time the market still came for him….

…. if that’s not confidence in the horse – connections and market – then I really don’t know what is….

He ran too keen that day – he was entitled to need it a bit – and scuppered his chances….

…. so I’m encouraged to see that Thomas sent the horse for a blow over hurdles at last month’s Cheltenham meeting – where he was 2nd of the 16 under top weight….

…. and my hope is that he’ll be spot on for tomorrow’s assignment with that run under his belt….

The ground at Cheltenham is currently good to soft (soft in places) with a dry afternoon forecast….

…. but when you take a look at the weather sites you’ll see a serious chunk of weather heading for Cheltenham overnight – most of it wet – and conditions could be pretty testing tomorrow afternoon….

That won’t bother Angels Breath and all things taken together I think he’s an interesting runner at a decent price….

• My other bet tomorrow….

Buddy One looks the one to beat in tomorrow’s Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (2.55)….

He’s got form in the book that seriously outweighs anything any of his opponents have produced to date….

…. and he’s up 9lb for his win at Galway last month to a mark of 147….

He’s got on an entry in the G1 Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse next month….

…. a clear indication that connections believe he can rank plenty higher still….

…. and the market hasn’t missed him….

He’ll have to do it off top weight, however….

…. and even with his 7lb claimer in the plate that’s not going to be a given in conditions are set to become more testing overnight….

My preference is for David Pipe’s new French recruit PLACENET at the general 11/2….

He’s never been seen on a British track and he’ll have to hit the ground running first-time-up….

…. and it could be that his biggest days lie ahead of us – and over fences (he’s entered in the Becher & the Welsh Grand National)….

… but he’s potentially really well-handicapped for this British hurdle debut on a mark of just 124….

…. and if he can replicate some of his French form – over hurdles but particularly over fences – then he’s entitled to be there or thereabouts tomorrow….

The ground won’t bother him and he was ready to go first time up last term for his French trainer….

At this time of year you’re always in two minds about whether horses are fit enough and/or whether or not this race is seen by connections as a mere sighter for some other race down the line….

…. but a mark of 124 entitles Placenet to carry just 10-05 tomorrow and that’s going to be a big advantage if we get the rain that’s forecast overnight….

He’s the favourite now – and I rarely put one of those up….

…. but in a race where quite a few might not like the ground….

…. and several others are maybe running over timber to prepare for a return to fences….

…. the Pipe horse stands out as a potentially well-handicapped and well-weighted option – and he’s got the potential to shorter further still….

• Finally….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back tomorrow….

…. with my thoughts on the action at Cheltenham on Sunday….

Meantime – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd