The pick of the prices at Cheltenham & Doncaster....

Friday, 15th December 2023

The pick of the prices at Cheltenham & Doncaster….

Thunder Rock is pretty obvious at the top of the market for tomorrow’s December Gold Cup at Cheltenham (1.50)….

…. just seven chases into his career – he’s already produced five performances worth 150+ on the RPR scale….

…. and his mark of 146 is workable….

Last time out he beat Mahler’s Mission comfortably enough – albeit over 2m4f – a performance for which he wasn’t put up a single pound….

…. and John McConnell’s beaten horse subsequently ran an absolute blinder when second in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury and now sits on a chase mark of 155….

Like I say, Thunder Rock is not hard to find….

…. the market likes him and he’s there to be backed at 7/2 – top dog in the betting….

Of course, there are no guarantees….

…. tomorrow is his first go in an open handicap….

…. just his second go outside of exclusive novice company….

…. and his first go in a field of this size….

The one I want to take him on with is SO SCOTTISH at the 11/2….

He’ll need to be much better than he was on seasonal debut at Gowran Park last month….

…. but he likely really needed that; the ground was unsuitably heavy; and that race would not have been a designated target for this second-season chaser….

JP McManus bought the horse ahead of the Cheltenham Festival last year….

…. a response to So Scottish running Boothill to 1.25 lengths in the Hurst Park at Ascot…

Harry Fry’s horse is now rated 18lbs higher….

…. and it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that So Scottish is still very handily rated on tomorrow’s British mark of 141….

He was plenty fancied for last year’s Plate at the Festival and again in April in a big handicap at Punchestown….

Neither assignment delivered the goods but connections are having another big pull on the lever tomorrow….

…. it wouldn’t be the first time Emmet Mullins has landed a big pot with one of his Irish raiders….

…. and don’t worry about the first time tongue tie. Mullins is 3/11 in that headgear first-time – and 4 of the other qualifiers placed….

• Cheltenham – 2.25….

The form of last month’s Jewson Handicap Chase at Cheltenham – won by Malina Girl – hasn’t been tested too rigorously yet….

…. but Truckers Lodge did win last weekend’s London National at Sandown….

…. Wayfinder ran a good race in second at Chepstow in the trial for the Welsh Grand National….

…. and Cloudy Glen went well for a long way in the Coral Gold Cup….

Malina Girl goes again in tomorrow’s Favourite From The Sun Now Daily Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (2.25)….

…. and likely has more money in her over fences at these extreme trips….

…. but she’s now 9lbs higher in the weights thanks to that last win….

…. and she may need to drop back down the rankings to some degree before her time comes around again….

CITY CHIEF – thought of as a potential Grand National horse by connections – was well fancied for last month’s race….

…. sent off at 4s he’s got some quality novice-Grade form in the book and was seen as the potential springer horse on seasonal debut….

Perhaps the market misread the situation….

…. he probably needed the race – Nicky Henderson certainly described it as a starting point….

Maybe he had just a bit too much to do under a big weight….

…. he was joint top-weight with the much more experienced and decorated Cloudy Glen…..

Who knows….

…. but while he certainly wasn’t disgraced in fourth that day….

…. and while he stuck on well enough on his first go at the trip….

…. he clearly wasn’t entirely ‘at it’….

…. and he’s a candidate to come on leaps and bounds for that run tomorrow – on a generous mark of 141….

…. and under a much more sympathetic burden – thanks to Protektorat’s presence in the field off a mark of 165….

• Doncaster – 3.15….

Finally, in the bet365 Handicap Chase at Doncaster (3.15)….

…. I’m backing Dan Skelton’s SAIL AWAY at the 11/2s….

Very progressive as a novice last season he signed off with a win at Ayr in comfortable style off a mark of 136….

He was up 8lbs to a mark of 144 on his seasonal return at Newbury….

… where he was 5/7 and beaten 12.5 lengths….

Say it like that and there’s not too much to shout about….

…. but it was a first run back since a wind-op in September….

…. the 2m4f trip was short of ideal….

…. and it wasn’t a bad race – he was up against some decent operators and they completed in a decent time….

Back up to the 3-mile trip tomorrow, this horse has more to give and remains progressive….

• Finally…. 

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd