Tuesday, 6th February 2024
It’s a quiet weekend on the handicap front….
…. but what we lack in quantity is made up for with quality….
…. because down at Newbury we’ve got the Betfair Hurdle….
…. the most lucrative handicap hurdle on the British programme….
…. offering prize money totaling £155k – of which the winner banks £87k+….
Nicky Henderson’s won the race five times – the first time in 1998 with Sharpical….
Meantime, Geos (2000), Landing Light (2001), Geos (2004), and My Tent Or Yours (2013), also obliged….
…. and Henderson’s had his fair share of placers too….
This year he’s playing another strong hand….
Iberico Lord – winner of the Greatwood at Cheltenham in November….
…. Luccia – winner of December’s Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot….
…. and Under Control – who made a satisfactory return at Doncaster last week following a wind-op….
…. are all in the top quartile of the ante-post betting….
Doddiethegreat – who progressed sweetly from his first run back for 746 days to his second – is another potential option at heftier odds….
Nico De Boinville hasn’t been seen on the track since December – when fracturing his collarbone….
…. but it’s reported that he’s racing to get fit for Saturday – with the Shiskin ride in the Denman Chase a big motivating factor….
…. but it will also be interesting to see – if he does return – which Henderson horse he opts for in the Betfair Hurdle….
De Boinville doesn’t always get it right – he rode Iberico Lord over Luccia in the Betfair Exchange Trophy, for example….
…. but he’s on the ground at Seven Barrows, he’s privy to more information than us, and – if nothing else – his choices reveal something about the way the yard hierarchy think the wind is blowing….
Henderson is always dangerous in this race – but he’s not the only big-gun in Berkshire on Saturday ….
…. there’s also Gary & Nige….
They might sound like the two handymen re-felting my shed roof this morning….
…. but I’m talking about Gary Moore and Nigel Twiston-Davies….
…. responsible – between them – for six of the last 16 winners….
Here’s their respective race records….
Had you backed all the Twiston-Davies runners (1pt e/w @ SP) – you’d be +20 points….
…. and with the Moore runners you’d be at +47 points….
Of course, what happened before is no guarantee of will happen next….
…. but both trainers have excellent race metrics, a clear penchant for targeting this race, and a knack for getting the prep bang-on….
Don’t overlook Dan Skelton….
He hasn’t won this specific race – yet….
…. but he’s got a record in valuable handicap hurdle events (£50k+ to the winner) that takes the breath away….
If you lack the contextual knowledge necessary to put those figures into proper perspective….
…. that’s a stellar performance….
…. one no other trainer can compete with….
…. in ultra-competitive races….
…. that always boast a BIG-field turnout….
Had you backed all qualifiers you’d be +128.7 points….
Don’t underestimate Dan Skelton in valuable handicap hurdle races…..
Old Willie Mullins….
…. fresh off a landslide haul of G1 events at last weekend’s Dublin Racing Festival….
…. and with every man jack in the game wondering if anybody will be able to hold a light to his Closutton machine at next month’s Cheltenham Festival….
…. has three horses entered on Saturday….
…. one of which is the race favourite Ocastle des Mottes….
…. a fresh import from France in the ownership of Simon Munir and Isaac Souede….
It’s not unusual for Mullins to send horses into this race – he’s sent 18 since 2002….
He’s never won, but he’s getting closer….
…. two of his last three participants hit the frame….
But only two Irish trainers have won the race since 1988….
…. and – if Ocastle des Mottes is to make Mullins the third – he’ll need to overcome never having run in Ireland or Britian and not having run at all since June….
Yesterday, Mullins said this: “He's a very nice horse, a strong one who is also fast and I think he'll be a really good horse in the future, whether that's over hurdles or fences.”
I don’t know about you, but I reckon that might be Mullins-speak for ‘not this weekend’….
Take your own view, of course. The market appears to be ultra-confident….
…. but I wonder if punters are getting mugged-off by race sponsors Betfair – the first firm to cut the horse – first from 10s to 7s and then in to 5s….
Is it real weight of money?
Or is it just another early-week bookmaker blagging job – designed to grab column inches and to sucker punters into the wrong horse at the wrong price?
I guess we’ll find out at the weekend….
It’s the time of year where every decent race run….
…. in Britain or Ireland….
…. is treated like a potential trial for one race or another at the Cheltenham Festival….
The Betfair Hurdle is run over the minimum trip….
…. plenty of contestants are novices….
…. and plenty of punters might think about some of Saturday’s runners as potential players in the Supreme in 5-weeks’ time….
That actual double – winning both races in the same year – hasn’t been done in the 52 years since 1972….
…. when the Supreme became a standalone race (rather than the two- or three-division Gloucestershire Hurdle)….
…. but in recent years Get Me Out Of Here (2010), My Tent Or Yours (2013) and Kalashnikov (2018) all went close in the Supreme after winning the Betfair….
…. Kalashnikov got to within a length of pulling the job off….
…. so never say never….
But the County Hurdle is likely to prove the more fertile Festival race for horses turning out on Saturday….
Last year’s County winner – Faivoir – ran in the Betfair (albeit pulled-up)….
…. so too third-placed horse – Filey Bay – who finished second at Newbury….
Edwardstone and First Street also hit the frame in both events in recent times….
…. so it’s well-worth keeping your eyes peeled and your ears open on Saturday with the County Hurdle in mind – because you just might see something that points you in the right direction….
That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – watch the last two renewals of the Betfair Hurdle here and here….
Finally – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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