The pick of the prices on Day 4 at the Cheltenham Festival....

Thursday, 14th March 2024

The pick of the prices on Day 4 at the Cheltenham Festival….

Betting advice for this afternoon – Day 3 at the Cheltenham Festival – was distributed yesterday. View it here….

I go out early doors with my advice in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about my race selections….

Sometimes I get the value. Other times it goes the other way – like so much else in racing….

Because I go out early, we are always a little ahead of the game….

The flag hasn’t been raised on Day 3 – and I’m already thinking about Day 4….

…. which means the County Hurdle, the Gold Cup & the Martin Pipe….

• ‘…. two-against-the-field….’

I’m two-against the field in the County Hurdle (2.10)….

…. backing both to win and foregoing the opportunity to play for place money….

First up is ZENTA for the McManus-Mullins-Walsh combo at the general 11s….

She’s only had two runs all season….

…. this looks to be the long-term target….

…. she ran a cracker in preparation at Leopardstown last time….

…. and this one-time G1 winning mare will surely have a massive chance tomorrow if stripping fitter for that assignment….

The other one I want to be with is another McManus-Mullins combination….

…. but this time Emmet Mullins and SO SCOTTISH at the general 14s….

Mullins the younger is a fantastic target trainer….

…. his one runner at this week’s meeting to date – Embassy Gardens – won Tuesday’s National Hunt Challenge Cup in convincing fashion….

…. and I think this one is primed for a big performance tomorrow….

Mullins has mastered the art of landing big prizes with horses via mixed campaigns over hurdles and fences….

…. think The Shunter & Noble Yeats….

…. and after a couple of less-than-productive goes over fences before Christmas….

…. So Scottish shows up here on a competitive hurdling mark….

…. off a very promising run behind Zenta in that Leopardstown race in early February….

Like her, he’s not been overworked this term, I’d say this has been the target and – given connections – I expect a big run….

• ‘…. swinging the bat….’

The 7yo and 8yo horses have had much the best of it over the last few years in the Gold Cup (3.30)….

…. winning each of the last seven editions and providing nine of the 14 horses to finish second or third over the same period….

Those numbers will provide plenty of encouragement for punters supporting Galopin Des Champs to win back-to-back renewals – at a short price….

He’s 11/10 and while nothing is set in stone, of course – El Fabiolo’s mishap in yesterday’s Champion Chase confirms that much….

…. given his obvious quality – not to mention the week his trainer is having – he’s very much the one to beat….

My strategy – with some of the bookies paying out on 4 places….

…. is to support one who can hit the frame at a big price….

…. and THE REAL WHACKER at 40s is the man for me….

Not many give him much of a chance on account of him being beaten in the G2 Cotswold on Trials day last time….

…. but his season has been all about the Gold Cup….

He wouldn’t have been anywhere near concert pitch for the Paddy Power in November – where he took a knock….

…. he would have learnt a lot in the King George – his first go in Open company – where he was doing all his best work late on a track that probably isn’t ideal….

…. and the Cotswold will have brought him on – once again he was doing some good work late on after they bypassed the second last fence – which turned it into a bit too much of a sprint against a quicker horse….

Of course, we expect more in preparation from Gold Cup winners….

…. but I’m not expecting him to win it….

…. I merely expect him to run a much bigger race than his price suggests….

…. and if he can hit the frame at that price, I’ll be happy with that….

He likes Cheltenham….

…. he goes up the hill well….

…. the extra yardage will suit….

…. this is his time of the year….

…. and the first-time visor might just draw that bit more from the horse….

He’s got to improve – of course he has….

…. but he’s entitled to having had just half-a-dozen goes over fences….

He’s a proper underdog – but he might just have that bit more bite tomorrow afternoon than the market is giving him credit for….

• ‘…. earmarked for the ride early doors….’

BETTER DAYS AHEAD is the pick for the Martin Pipe (5.30) at the 10s….

The time before last he didn’t run too badly off levels against the winner of Tuesday’s Supreme….

…. last time he was attempting to give 15lb to the well-regarded Asian Master – who also ran well in Tuesday’s Supreme….

The competition won’t be quite so hot or demanding on this his first go in a handicap….

…. and I’m mindful that Gordon Elliott has a decent record in the race – two winners and nine placers from his 33 runners….

Elliott has seven in the race this time around – and he was late with his jockey bookings at the final declaration stage….

…. but not with this horse….

Danny Gilligan was clearly earmarked for this ride early-doors and that could be a significant pointer….

• Finally….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back tomorrow with my analysis and selections for the action on Saturday….

Meantime – Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd