You can't run from one horse....

Tuesday, 30th April 2024

You can’t run from one horse….

We’ve got a busy week on the racing front….

…. with plenty of races to target at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting….

…. which starts on Friday and runs through Sunday….

I’ll be there for all three days….

…. digging out value bets – where I can find them – in the big handicaps and the two G1s….

…. get the full lowdown here….

The headline race is Saturday’s 2000 Guineas….

…. 14 stood their ground yesterday for the first G1 of the British season….

…. with City Of Troy the general 4/6 favourite in the betting….

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has described this son of Justify as ‘the best 2yo I’ve ever trained’….

…. and the 10-time 2000 Guineas winner – the all-time race-daddy – professed himself ‘delighted’ with the colt’s workout on Friday morning….

You can watch a bit of that here….

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We can’t know how the market might change between now and the off on Saturday….

…. but if things stay as they are….

…. then only Frankel – sent off at 1/2 in the 2011 renewal….

…. which he went and won by 6-lengths….

…. will have exited the stalls a shorter price – this century at least….

Odds-on prices can give the impression that the result of a race is a foregone conclusion….

…. a coronation job….

…. but that’s far from being the case….

Odds-on shots get turned over all the time….

…. including in the 2000 Guineas….

Air Force Blue – another Aidan O’Brien hotpot – was sent off the 4/5 favourite for the 2016 renewal….

…. and his performance fell a long way short of his pre-race billing and market expectation….

He finished 12th of the 13 runners that afternoon….

…. he was beaten more than a furlong out….

…. and trailed the winner home by 15-lengths….

…. gifting the layers a healthy profit….

He was all the rage ahead of the race….

…. but never did a damn thing afterwards….

…. getting beaten an aggregate 45-lengths in three subsequent races before being retired….

Expectation and delivery are two very different things….

…. and 13 opponents will turn out on Saturday….

…. each situated somewhere on a spectrum that stretches from hope to expectation….

…. determined to spoilt the party for City Of Troy, his connections, and his backers….

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All that said….

…. what can’t be denied – and his price reflects this fact – is that he’s well ahead of the pack in terms of form in the book….

City Of Troy’s win in last season’s Dewhurst….

…. run over 7f at Saturday’s venue….

…. is rated 7lb superior to Rosallion’s win in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp – on Racing Post ratings….

…. 8lb superior to Henry Longfellow’s Vincent O´Brien National Stakes win at the Curragh in September….

…. and 9lb superior to Haatem’s win in the Craven Stakes – over course and distance – a fortnight ago….

In other words….

…. the horses closest to him in terms of formbook achievement….

…. need to improve half-a-stone and more on Saturday simply to match what he’s already produced….

…. a calculation that completely disregards whatever improvement City Of Troy produces himself at the weekend….

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It’s unusual – but not entirely without precedent – for one horse to be so dominant on the figures heading into the race….

Back in 2020 Pinatubo….

…. another 5/6 favourite for the race….

…. turned up at Newmarket with form worth 10lb, 11lb and 12lb more than that of his nearest three rivals on the book….

…. but it didn’t translate into victory….

He fell 10lb below his previous peak effort on the day….

…. and could only finish third….

…. whilst winner Kameko improved 10lb….

…. and runner-up Wichita improved 4lb….

Horses can improve massively between 2 and 3….

…. and if City Of Troy is undercooked or off his game – for whatever reason – on Saturday….

…. it only takes one or two opponents to get on the right side of a big swing in the numbers and he’s vulnerable….

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If there are horses that are going to get on the right side of a big swing in the numbers on Saturday….

…. I’d hazard a guess that they’ve yet to be seen on the track this term….

Nothing that happened in any of the established trials over the last couple of weeks….

…. races that Aidan O’Brien says this about: “…. they are what they are, and we don’t read too much into them….”

…. seems likely to have much bearing on what happens on Saturday afternoon….

Esquire – winner of the Greenham at Newbury – is a gelding and can’t even run in Saturday’s race….

The big swingers are likely to have been prepared entirely at home….

…. with perhaps a racecourse gallop to assist with their ongoing education….

…. that’s the hardening trend….

Fourteen of the last 20 winners of the 2000 Guineas were making their seasonal debut….

…. and eight of those had already won a G1 race as a juvenile….

City Of Troy ticks both those boxes – you can see why the money’s landing on him….

…. stable mate Henry Longfellow is another qualifier….

…. and Rosallion is the third….

At prices up to 25s perhaps Henry Longfellow….

…. who heads into the race perhaps a little underestimated because he’s been so overshadowed by his Coolmore compadre in the build-up….

…. represents a little each-way value….

…. and it’s worth noting he’s unbeaten, he’s done nothing wrong, and he was as short as 6s for Saturday’s race after winning last time out at the Curragh….

 Who knows….

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Giant’s Causeway, Hawk Wing, Hold That Tiger, One Cool Cat, St Nicholas Abbey, Air Force Blue, Ten Sovereigns, Battleground, and Auguste Rodin….

…. all these horses….

…. some of which proved themselves top-drawer later in their respective careers….

…. were beaten 2000 Guineas favourites trained by Aidan O’Brien….

And it should be noted that Hawk Wing was beaten by Rock of Gibraltar….

…. a horse prepared for the race very much in the shadow of his well-championed stable mate….

…. and wholly underestimated by the market….

My point is this….

…. it wouldn’t be entirely unprecedented if Henry Longfellow were to run bigger than market expectation on Saturday….

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The bottom line is that I will be taking City Of Troy on….

…. because that’s how I roll….

…. that’s how I play the race-betting game….

It’s like Owen Burrows – trainer of Haatem – said last week: “…. you can’t run from one horse….”

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That’s all for today….

Back tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd