The pick of the Saturday prices....

Friday, 17th May 2024

The pick of the Saturday prices….

RAINBOW FIRE ran a nice race on seasonal debut at Haydock last time….

…. finishing third of the nine runners and beaten just 1.5 lengths….

The key consideration is that he was running on the softest ground he’s encountered to date….

…. still ran up to form….

…. is entitled to strip fitter for that run….

…. and will be better suited by the quicker ground he’ll get in tomorrow’s trustatrader.com Handicap (2.40) at Newmarket over the 7f trip….

That wasn’t the first time Marco Botti’s 6yo has run well at flat Haydock….

…. and Newmarket presents an entirely different test….

But this is the track where Rainbow Fire won his maiden back in 2020….

…. and while tomorrow’s race is a totally different proposition….

…. that performance does serve to sooth doubts that the horse can handle the terrain….

He runs off a mark of 95….

…. which he won off with a career-best performance in a good handicap at Haydock last April….

…. overcoming the likes of Biggles (subsequently 2nd in the Victoria Cup and winner of the Bunbury Cup) and Montassib….

He’s a player tomorrow and the general 10s is fair enough….

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The London Gold Cup Handicap at Newbury (3.00) is the most informative handicap for 3yos run ahead of Royal Ascot….

…. it repeatedly churns out top performers including winners of the Melbourne Cup and the Dubai World Cup….

…. it often features future Group winners masquerading as handicappers….

…. and the expectation is that you’ll see loads of slow-burners line up that are well-ahead of the handicapper….

I think the fashion amongst punters is to look for those slow-burn horses – and I’d ordinarily be among that number….

…. but this year I wonder if BLACK RUN – the top weight – is overpriced at 16s – with some 20s about….

He’s already got an RPR of 106 in the book – that would have been good enough to win or go very close in each of the renewals over the last decade….

…. and – whilst he’s up 7lbs to 99 for his win at Newmarket last time out….

…. he shaped like there’s still more to come….

…. and his front-running style will surely be more suited by tomorrow’s bends at Newbury than it was by the long straight at Newmarket….

He was lugging left that day – but found plenty at the finish when challenged and under pressure….

…. He certainly wasn’t all out….

He had been tried in a G3 in France prior to the Newmarket run – where soft ground did for him….

… he’d also been given a Derby entry – an indication that the folks back home think he’s a bit better than a handicapper….

I think he’s a big price for a horse that sets the standard as it stands….

…. and a mark of 99 is not insurmountable….

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Handicaps are the staple fare at ATC….

…. but I’m not a total crank about these things….

…. and if I really fancy a price in one of the big Group races, I’m always happy to put one up….

Just such an instance occurs tomorrow in the G1 Lockinge at Newbury (3.35)….

…. I’m going to have a big swing of the bat and back WITCH HUNTER at 50s….

It looks like there’s going to be loads of pace on early….

…. there’s a good chance there’s will be some dig in the racing surface….

…. and both those features will suit Richard Hannon’s horse down to the ground….

He likes to come late off a strong pace….

…. as he showed when winning the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last summer….

…. and when winning the G2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury over 7f in August….

He kept on very nicely that afternoon….                             

…. he’s worth a crack at the mile….

…. and if they go hard early doors then he’s one to watch out for late on….

I think he’s a massive price and perfectly capable – on his day – of hitting the frame and landing the e/w money if the fractions go his way….

• Finally….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back after the weekend….

Meanwhile – Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd

P.S. Click here for my advice for this afternoon's races....