Thursday, 23rd May 2024
Callum Shepherd’s had a tough week – no doubt about it….
…. but the stats suggest that Saturday delivers a perfect opportunity for the young rider to bounce back….
…. and to show what he’s made of….
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Just a fortnight back things were looking pretty rosy for the 26-year-old….
Shepherd had just enjoyed a high-profile win….
…. steering James Fanshawe’s Ambiente Friendly to success in the Derby Trial at Lingfield….
…. and it looked to all the world like he’d be lining up at Epsom next weekend for his first ever Derby ride on that selfsame horse
…. now second in the ante-post betting for the race….
But it’s not to be….
Yesterday – ahead of the colt’s canter up Warren Hill at Newmarket….
…. Ambiente Friendly’s owners – Tim & Bill Gredley – announced that Rab Havlin would be riding their horse at Epsom and not Shepherd….
Explaining the decision to reporters, Tim Gredley said he and his father had opted for ‘more experience on the day….’
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When they use the word experience….
…. they must be talking about Havlin’s age – he’s 50….
…. or the sheer length of a riding career that stretches back some 30-odd years….
Because they’re certainly not talking about his experience as a Derby pilot….
He’s had just two starts in the Derby….
…. finishing 10/12 on Sevenna Star in 2018….
…. and 7/13 on the similarly unfancied Humanitarian in 2019….
He’s had two rides in the Oaks as well….
…. but finished out of the frame on both of those occasions too….
Bottom line: it’s not like Havlin is some mysteriously unheralded doyen of the Epsom classics….
…. and a record that reads 0/25 at the track since 2012 doesn’t inspire any great faith either….
Especially not when you compare them to Shepherd’s figures at the track – 8/47 @ 17%....
Like Martin Dwyer says about Shepherd in this morning’s Racing Post: “He's a skillful jockey, he's shown a good temperament, and he rides Epsom well.”
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Now, look….
I’ve got absolutely nothing against Rab Havlin – I wish him well with the ride….
…. and what owners decide to do – with regard to who does or who doesn’t ride their horses – is their business….
It’s got nothing to do with me – because they’re the ones that buy the horse, pay the bills, have the sleepless nights, and all the rest of it….
Getting jocked off a horse probably happens to every rider at some point in his/her career….
…. it’s part of the game and something you have to learn to live with….
I’m just making the point that….
…. from the outside looking in….
…. this seems a particularly hard-hearted call….
You wonder what Shepherd’s done wrong….
…. or what more he would have to have done to retain the ride….
It’s not like he made some big error of judgment at Lingfield….
…. where blatant inexperience or some hare-brained move compromised the horse’s performance or his chance of winning….
On the day, Shepherd appeared to do everything right and….
…. having very recently broken his duck in Group races….
…. had assumed the mantle of a rider very much on the up in the game….
But racing – like life itself – is very fickle….
…. and this week it all came crashing back down to Earth a bit….
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Getting over blows and assorted disappointments is part and parcel of getting on in the game….
Shephard will need to suck it up, redouble his efforts, and bounce back stronger for the experience….
…. and the stats suggest he’s got an excellent opportunity to make a big point – to anybody he might want to prove something to – on Saturday afternoon at Haydock….
…. which is the track on which he’s been most effective – in terms of getting winners – across his career to date….
His bare record at Haydock reads 12/52 @ 23.1%....
…. and the strike rate percentage alone tells you he does pretty well at the place….
…. but his Impact Value figure at the track is what really reinforces how well Shepherd does at the Lancashire venue….
His Impact Value figure at Haydock is 2.2….
…. and what that figure tells us is that when you take all Shepherd’s winners and rides into account….
…. across all the tracks he’s ridden at in Britain throughout his career….
…. he rides winners at Haydock 120% more often than pure chance (1.0) suggests he should….
Shepherd rides Haydock better than he rides any other venue….
…. that’s what the figures tell us….
…. so he’s very much in the right place on Saturday if he wants to demonstrate that a bit of adversity isn’t going to disrupt his drive to get to the big rides at the top of the game….
Racing at Haydock is a perfect opportunity to show the owners of top horses exactly what he’s all about – and I expect him to be fired up and competitive….
Most punters you’ll be betting against on Saturday won’t know the deep-dive truth about Shepherd’s record at Haydock….
…. so it’s something worth having in the knowledge bank heading into the weekend….
Note: his Impact Value at Epsom (1.6) is none too shabby either….
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I’m no riding coach – but I do know what basic numbers mean….
…. and one way Callum Shephard might add polish to his general profile….
…. and get himself in line for more big rides….
…. would be to improve his record at Ascot and at York….
…. two top turf tracks where plenty of the big-race action takes place….
Right now, the cupboard is bare at both tracks….
Shepherd is 0/56 at Ascot….
…. and 0/34 at York….
Winners on big race days at those tracks garner the right kind of attention….
…. and it’s about time Shepherd starts getting a few of those – in my humble opinion….
At least that’s what I’d be telling – but what do I know….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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