Wednesday, 29th May 2024
First off….
…. in case you missed it last week….
…. go here to download your copy of my latest Special Research Report – Angles, Pointers & Clues – Epsom’s Derby Meeting 2024….
The Derby meeting starts on Friday….
…. and my report will help you take an informed opinion – and make selections – in the biggest races….
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Last week I highlighted how Callum Shepherd….
…. jocked off Derby contender Ambiente Friendly….
…. had a perfect opportunity to bounce back at Haydock – a track where he’s got solid performance figures….
Whilst he didn’t manage to ride a winner – he didn’t go badly….
…. with four rides producing performance figures of: 2/12; 3/9; 7/13 & 2/15….
…. at SPs of 7s, 16s, 14s, and 8s….
Three placers from four goes is a decent effort in anybody’s book….
…. and six e/w doubles at SPs banked profits of 15.24 points….
Not that I recommended that bet, of course….
I use the example simply to highlight that jockey/track angles are worth consideration….
…. especially when you have access to data the rest of the market isn’t looking at….
…. a proper information edge….
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Looking ahead to Epsom this weekend….
…. Oisin Murphy has ridden plenty of winners at the idiosyncratic switchback track….
…. a configuration that tests riders as much as it does horses….
In the last five completed seasons – and the current one – he’s ridden 14 winner from 76 rides @ 18.4%....
He clearly rides the place well
…. but when you compare his 5-year strike rate at Epsom to his baseline strike-rate across all rides at all tracks over the same period….
…. which amounts to 18.6%....
…. it’s clear Murphy rides Epsom no better (or equally as well) as he rides elsewhere….
There’s no indication that the Epsom track elevates his performance beyond the norm….
It’s the same with William Buick – whose ridden more Epsom winners than any other rider over the last 5-year period….
…. 17 of them from 68 rides @ 25%....
It’s a quality performance – but not much in advance of his baseline performance….
…. which weighs in @ 23.3%….
Ryan Moore fits the pattern too….
…. he’s been good at Epsom – riding 9 winners from 43 rides @ 20.9%....
…. but only exceeding his 5-year baseline strike rate of 20.2% by a small margin….
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Put a gun to my head and ask me to pick one of these guys to ride winners and this weekend….
…. or to come out on top of some three-way match bet….
…. and – after some slicing and dicing of the figures – I’d opt for William Buick….
He’s 7 from 35 @ 20% C1 & C2 races – which trumps Murphy (10%) and Moore (17.9%)….
…. and he’s 9 from 38 @ 23.6% in handicaps – which beats Murphy (15.6%) and Moore (13.3%)….
Most races this weekend are C1 & C2 contests – and handicaps are the races of most interest to me….
Buick has the edge both ways – and he’d be my gun-to-head pick to produce performances on Friday & Saturday….
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Clearly all three top riders need respect on the Downs this weekend….
…. as they do – every week – anywhere else….
But it should be noted that Epsom isn’t a track that particularly improves the performance figures of any of them….
Oisin Murphy’s 5-year Impact Value at Epsom reads 0.99….
…. with William Buick it’s 1.07….
…. and with Ryan Moore it’s 1.03….
In other words, all three men are around par – which is 1.00. They ride the winners chance would dictate….
None of them do something at Epsom that they don’t routinely do elsewhere….
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And that’s what I want to see in datasets related to jockey performance at a specific track….
…. I want to see evidence (preferably hidden from mainstream view)….
…. that the track improves a rider….
…. or enables him to produce performances that he doesn’t routinely produce at alternative venues….
Ordinarily, I’d be interested in Benoit De La Sayette….
He’s 9 from 33 @ 27.3% at Epsom since the start of 2019 – giving him an Impact Value of 1.83….
…. which translates to this: he ridden winners at Epsom 83% more often than pure chance says he should have over the test period….
…. but he’s not at Epsom this weekend….
Jason Hart is though – at least on Saturday….
…. and that’s interesting….
…. because his record reads 7 winners from 33 rides @ 21.2%....
…. which translates to an Impact Value of 1.72….
Hart rides winners at the track 72% more often than chance says he should….
…. and he’s a rider who could be flying under the radar….
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The table below shows the record of top riders at Epsom over the last 5-years….
…. outlining wins, runs, strike rate %, and Impact Value (ordered by IV – best first – and including all riders with 5+ wins)….
Callum Shepherd is top man – but there’s no sign of Rab Havlin (who takes the ride on Ambiente Friendly)….
…. a state of affairs that makes the decision him to jock Shepherd off the Derby ride all the more peculiar….
Shepherd is set to take rides at Epsom on Friday (but not Saturday)….
…. and I wouldn’t put it past him to go well again at a track where the figures tell us he excels….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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