The pick of the prices on Day 4 at Royal Ascot....

Thursday, 20th June 2024

The pick of the prices on Day 4 at Royal Ascot….

Hopeful yesterday was hard to take in the Kensington Place Stakes….

Royal Ascot is a tough week for handicap punters….

…. with each race presenting a massive and highly-competitive field….

You kind of need the rub of the green when you get on a ‘live’ one….

…. and I didn’t get that yesterday – with Hopeful getting collared at the absolute death….

Not to worry – three days and eight races to go yet….

…. and the intention is to hit something else….

If you missed yesterday’s column containing selections for this afternoon – Day 3 at Royal Ascot – you can catch up here….

I’m already thinking about Day 4….

…. which means the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (4.25)– an open contest over the 12f trip….

…. the Sandringham Stakes (5.05) – a mile heat for the fillies….

…. and the Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes (6.15) – a handicap up the 5f straight restricted to 3yo horses….

Let’s get down to it….

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In the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes – 4.25….

BAGUE D’OR is out wide in the top stall – number 22….

…. but that’s no bar to winning this one….

…. not when you consider 5 of the last 10 winners came out of stalls 18 or bigger….

…. and just one of the last 10 winners came out of a single-figure stall….

He’s up at 14s this morning and that’s a nice price about a horse that’s in form and still on an upward curve….

His record in handicaps on good ground or quicker reads 16211221 – and I reckon there’s more to come yet….

After his win at Newmarket on seasonal reappearance (this column was on) his trainer told us he’s working back from the Ebor….

His current mark of 96 wouldn’t have got him a run in that race in 9 of the last 10 renewals….

…. so connections will almost certainly be looking for him to go in again….

He gets his ground tomorrow….

…. we know he handles the track….

…. and whilst you might argue that he ideally wants 14f (he didn’t get into the Copper Horse earlier in the week) he won over 12f on fast ground at York last August

…. and on this stiffer track – and with a wide draw – his evident stamina will be more of factor tomorrow than it was that day….

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In the Sandringham Stakes – 5.05….

CAT NINJA at 25s is the pick of the prices for me in this one….

The form of her maiden win at Windsor in May has worked out well with the horse she beat a neck into second….

…. Clove Hitch….

…. subsequently winning a novice event in striking fashion – and looking like a Listed class horse in doing so….

That was Cat Ninja’s one go at the mile – it came on fast ground – and I can see her improving again tomorrow….

There are obviously horses above her on the racecard – and in the betting – that have achieved a bit more….

…. but they’ve also shown more of their hand and carry more weight as a consequence….

On an opening mark of 91 I think she’s potentially very well handicapped….

…. and with an entry in the Falmouth….

…. she could be the genuine Group horse lurking down the order – at a decent price….

She’s on the right side of the track too if the races run up the straight this week offer any kind of reliable evidence….

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In the Palace of Holyrood House Stakes – 6.15….

DYRHOLAEY at the 10s is the pick for this one….

He won a novice event over the 5f trip at Newcastle….

…. looking better than the bare form….

…. and he gets to run off the same mark of 90 tomorrow – and he’s simply got to be well-handicapped if taking to a turf assignment the same way….

That’s a slight worry of course….

…. but let’s not forget that Archie Watson won this same race last year with a horse that had done pretty much all its running on the AW….

AW form does transfer to Royal Ascot better than the market tends to appreciate….

…. I think he’s been aimed at this event from a long way out….

…. and I reckon that’s a big part of the reason Wathnan Racing spent good money buying him ahead of this contest….

He’s a bit shorter in the betting than I’d normally opt for – but I can’t ignore how well-handicapped he is….

…. and I see him running a big race off a nice weight from the right side of the track….

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• Finally….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back tomorrow with my picks for Day 5 at Royal Ascot….

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

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