Wednesday, 26th June 2024
This ATC column is all about trying to find winning bets….
…. in different ways….
I offer my selections – direct – ahead of the big handicaps….
…. I deliver information that you might put to use in order to dig out winners yourself….
…. for example, the Frankel handicappers angle at Royal Ascot last week….
…. or Jason Hart’s rides at Epsom at the start of the month….
And I dig through the action in search of horses who performed like they’re ready to win a pot – and land a bet for punters – in the weeks ahead….
…. horses like Lord Melbourne – who went and won at York recently….
…. or English Oak whose won a couple of races since I put some focus on him at the beginning of May – including last week’s Buckingham Palace Stakes….
Today, we’re back on the dig….
…. and looking for horses to take out of the Royal Ascot handicaps and put on to the Watch List….
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An absolute belter….
First up is Michael Appleby’s Billyjoh….
…. and, no….
…. it’s not just because he got beaten into second in last week’s Buckingham Palace Stakes after I’d put him up….
…. or because I’m like the lovesick teenager who can’t let go of the girl who jilted him….
It’s all about his performance – which was an absolute belter….
Let’s not forget – this was his first go at the 7f trip….
…. and it’s not like there weren’t easier options off a mark of 93….
Let’s not overlook the fact that his yard had been well out of form….
…. producing just 3 winners from 66 runners in the month leading up to the race….
…. and with 52 of those runners finishing outside the places….
And let’s not dismiss the fact that he was running on the fastest ground he’d ever encountered….
Yes, he got beaten 3-lengths by English Oak….
…. but that’s one’s quite clearly a pattern horse in the making – maybe even a G1 horse in time….
…. and if you take him out then Billyjoh has beaten the rest well – and would certainly rank higher than the revised mark of 95 he sits on this morning….
There’s more to come at the specialist 7f trip – that much is for sure….
…. the horse is in cracking form right now….
…. and he’s still very much unexposed on turf….
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Now that he’s rediscovered his mojo….
Orazio is a horse I’ve had my eye on for a while….
…. for all the wrong reasons….
Heading into last weekend’s Wokingham….
…. he’d been a beaten outright or joint-favourite….
…. in each of his previous six assignments….
Keeping the faith with him must have felt a bit like old Wile E Coyote felt whenever he came face-to-face with gravity….
…. painful….
But it almost came right on Saturday….
Given a few more strides he’d most likely have won the race….
…. and it was certainly his best performance since he burst onto the scene….
…. looking very much like a potential future pattern race candidate….
…. when winning a C3 handicap at Ascot in May last year….
It may be the case that the nature of the Wokingham – a strong gallop….
…. in combination with the stiff finish at Ascot….
…. are the variables that turned the key on Saturday….
It’s interesting that Hills mentioned the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket next month as a potential next stop for the horse….
That would be his first-go over the 7f trip….
…. and it seems like a clear admission that a bit more emphasis on stamina than outright speed is what the future looks like for this horse….
…. he’s certainly bred for a bit further than the 6f trip….
His trainer’s post-race comments strongly suggest that he hasn’t given up on higher-level aspirations for this 5yo….
Hills spoke about some ‘nice handicaps’ later in the summer….
…. before hopefully ending up in Group company….
My read of that is that his trainer thinks this is a future Group horse on a mark of 103 – from which he can land a big handicap pot some time pretty soon….
Now that the horse appears to have rediscovered his mojo….
…. and his trainer – by dint of considered thought or the vagaries of serendipity and happenstance – has discovered the correct trip….
…. the future looks plenty rosier than perhaps it did….
Orazio is of serious interest in the weeks ahead….
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A dangerous proposition….
I wonder if lack of match practice cost Perotto last week….
A winner of the Britannia as a 3yo – he clearly likes Ascot….
…. but he’d proved a disappointing favourite in the 2023 edition of the Royal Hunt Cup….
In last week’s renewal he put the record right….
…. producing a very different story at a much bigger price….
Sent off at 25s he finished 3/29 beaten just a length – and it could have been better….
He didn’t get out of the stalls A1 – perhaps losing a little ground….
…. and he was a bit keen early on – which might just have taken something of the edge off his finishing effort….
I’m speculating, of course. And I can’t knock his performance – he was right there at the death….
…. but I wonder if lack of a prep race just told on him when it mattered most….
No matter, we have just crossed the border into what is his time of the year – midsummer when the ground is fast….
…. the application of a hood has got him back to something like….
…. and a mark of 102 is not beyond him on last week’s evidence….
Bottom line….
…. if he improves a couple of pounds for his seasonal return then he’s a dangerous proposition over the mile trip – straight or going right-handed….
…. he won’t always run into a field as strong or a race as tough as the Royal Hunt Cup….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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