Thursday, 24th June 2024
It’s not impossible to win a big-field edition of Saturday’s Northumberland Plate….
…. or the Northumberland Vase (16+ runners)….
…. from a low stall….
And by ‘big-field’ I mean 16+ runners….
Zeeband won a 19-runner Vase from stall 2 in 2021….
…. Zoffee won that same race from stall 6 in 2022….
Antiquarium won the 2016 edition of the Plate from stall 3.
…. and Who Dares Wins won the 2019 Plate from stall 7….
…. but the other 8 qualifying winners of either race emerged from double-figure stalls….
And when you take the placed horses into consideration….
…. and please take note that I include 5th place in 20+ runner races….
…. the advantage of a high starting berth becomes clearer still….
…. with 30 of the 42 horses that hit the frame in either race also starting in a double-figure stall….
Looking at the stalls in clusters, win & place strike rates look like this….
I don’t think the numbers could be any clearer….
…. With 4 wins and 15 placers from 58 runners….
…. And a total place strike rate of 32.7%....
…. The top 5 stalls are the daddy stalls….
…. And the total place strike rate is at its lowest at the bottom end of the draw – with stalls 1 to 5 producing a rate of just 10.3%....
Expressed as Impact Values – the numbers looks like this….
In layman’s terms stalls 16 to 20 have a 40% better record of placing than chance would dictate….
In other words….
…. advantage increases the higher you are in the stalls….
It’s something worth knowing….
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Slicing & dicing….
The draw is but one feature of the Northumberland Plate – albeit a significant one….
Looking at results across the last 22-years there are additional pointers you might use to slice and dice the field….
Horses older than 6 don’t have the best record – 17/22 winners were aged between 4 and 6….
…. a win at 14f+ is a positive – 17/22 winners ticked that box….
…. running off a long break is a clear negative – 20/22 winners had raced within the previous 8-weeks….
…. and good recent form is significant – 21/22 winners finished in the first 5 last time out with 18 of those making the first 3....
The historic record doesn’t offer a tremendous volume of cast-iron pointers….
…. but those statements might be of some assistance when you come to assess the race….
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Money talks….
The Northumberland Plate money has spoken sense recently ….
…. with 8/12 winners setting off as one of the top two in the betting....
2021 was a total aberration with Nicholas T winning at 33s for Jim Goldie – followed home by horses sent off at 28s, 16s & 16s….
Since 2016 – when the race moved to the AW track – 3 winners and 14 placers were sent off at 14s or bigger….
…. 4 of that group started the race in stall 14 or higher….
…. figures that suggest backing a horse at a big price from a favoured stall is a decent strategy for contrarian punters….
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Where the stats point….
There’s loads of racing up at Newcastle across the year….
…. not much of it is particularly valuable….
…. but this week’s 3-day meeting – which runs from this afternoon through to Saturday – is an exception….
…. with the three cards offering 11 races worth £10k+ to winning connections (one this afternoon, two tomorrow, and the remainder on Saturday)….
Setting out to crunch the numbers this week, I want to know which yards are most effective when targeting valuable races run at the track….
…. races worth £10k+ to winning connections….
I went back to May 2016 – when the AW track at Newcastle opened – in search of answers….
…. the table below highlights the yards that stand out most clearly in terms of win volume, win percentage and total place percentages….
Obviously, Knight & Cox have done well whilst being discriminating….
…. and anything they run in the valuable races is worth a second glance given the results achieved….
Balding, Watson & Haggas have thrown more darts and maintained a consistent level of effectiveness….
…. with specific riders providing particularly noteworthy outcomes….
Oisin Murphy rode 17 of Balding’s 71 qualifiers….
…. he won on 8 and placed on 3….
…. producing win & place strike rates of 47% and 64.7%....
Hollie Doyle rode 12 of Archie Watson’s 37 qualifiers….
…. winning on 5 at 41.6%....
…. there were no additional placers….
Tom Marquand rode 15 of William Haggas’s 44 qualifiers….
…. winning on 4 and placing on 3….
…. which produces win & place strike rates of 26.6% and 46.6%....
These are the sweet spots in the statistical record….
Marquand rides Red Danielle for Haggas in the G3 for fillies at 6.00 tomorrow night….
…. while Hollie Doyle rides Albasheer for Archie Watson in the G3 Chipchase Stakes on Saturday at 2.04….
If your life depended on finding a winner on Saturday at Newcastle….
…. the stats say these are the bets to think about….
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That’s all for today.
Back tomorrow….
Finally – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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