Tuesday, 16th July 2024
Last week was reasonable enough on the betting front….
The wheel turned again….
…. it always does….
…. in my favour….
…. and I hope you managed to back a winner or two and make a few quid….
After all, that’s what this game is all about….
How was it for you? Let me know direct: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
It’s a quieter weekend this week….
…. Glorious Goodwood is just around the corner (this summer is sprinting by)….
…. and this weekend is a ‘breather’ in the schedule ahead of that….
We’re light on big handicaps this week….
…. but there are other races to target….
…. and target them I will….
-----
Alert: pricing errors up ahead….
Juvenile races aren’t staple fare for ATC….
…. but with the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes at Newbury, I almost always make an exception....
It’s not an easy contest to solve….
…. these young horses are developing fast….
…. improving in leaps and bounds….
…. and the handicap marks many of them possess can’t be relied upon as an accurate gauge of their true ability….
In other words, the race presents a complex and difficult environment in which the market is always going to be prone to pricing errors….
…. errors that eagle-eyed contrarian punters can capitalize on….
-----
Note the conditions….
The race has specific conditions of entry that you should be aware of….
For a start, the race is restricted to horses bought at public auction….
…. and – unlike with a handicap race – weight carried is related to the price the horse was bought for rather than its official mark….
…. with 1lb in weight deducted for each £5000 the purchase price falls below the maximum value permitted (£62k to £65k depending on the date the horse was sold)….
On top of that, the fillies get an allowance….
…. and penalties for previous wins are applied on a sliding scale….
I think that’s the first stop for most punters looking at this race….
…. they seek-out a horse considered one of the best in the field – either on the basis of its official rating or RPRs….
…. but which carries a low weight based on its auction price, allowances, and penalties….
It’s one reason – there are probably others – why Kevin Ryan’s Ain’t Nobody….
…. last in a 6-runner G2 July Stakes last week when stepping up to 6f….
…. is at the top of the ante-post betting for Saturday’s renewal….
-----
Advantaged at the weights….
Officially rated 106, Ain’t Nobody is the highest ranked horse in the race….
…. at least 11lb higher than many horses slated to run against him (as it stands at this stage)….
In a handicap Ain’t Nobody would give weight to everything else in the field….
…. but on Saturday he’ll receive weight from some of his opponents….
…. and he’ll meet the others on much better terms at the weights than would be the case in a handicap race….
In short, race conditions confer a distinct advantage….
Hence Kevin Ryan’s decision to target him at the big money….
…. and hence his prominence in the betting….
But there’s plenty of scope for a specific type of horse….
…. for example, a cheap filly with talent that hasn’t done any winning at C1 or C2 level to date….
…. to go well at a price….
That horse is easily described, of course – but not so easily identified ahead of the game….
But there are clues to help us along….
-----
Repeat offenders….
The Hannon outfit has an excellent record in the race....
…. Richard Hannon Snr won the race 7 times….
…. and the current Richard Hannon did his bit for the family tradition by winning it with Tiggy Wiggy in 2014, Ginger Nut in 2018 (at a very punter-friendly 16s) Happy Romance in 2020 and with Gubbass in 2021....
Hannon’s complete race record reads four winners from 40 runners….
…. and other participants finished 2/20, 2/22, 2/23, 5/25, 5/24, 5/20, 6/24, 6/24 & 6/20….
Anything the yard runs this time around must be respected….
…. because the Hannon team clearly target the race with an above-average degree of intention….
…. and with three horses still engaged for Saturday’s race….
…. you’d expect at least one of those to be travelling to Newbury with some serious expectation behind them....
It’s worth noting that Tiggy Wiggy won for the yard carrying top weight….
…. but two of the winners and eight of the horses to make the top six in the race for Hannon since 2014 wore saddlecloth numbers 20, 20, 20, 19, 18, 16, 15, 14, 14 & 13….
In other words, they were down the weights….
…. Hannon got them into the race relatively unburdened….
-----
The historic record….
Looking back at previous renewals as a guide, the suggestion is that you want to avoid maidens….
…. no horse has won this over the last 17-years without scoring a previous win….
You should also note that the fillies have frequently capitalized on their weight allowance….
…. the girls have come out on top in 19 of the 32 renewals run to date….
15/16 winners had already scored a win over the minimum trip – the one that didn’t (2019 winner Betty’s Hope) had been beaten a nose over the trip….
0/21 winners had raced more than 5 times in total – 15 had raced no more than three times. Just 2/21 winners turned up on the back of a single run….
18/21 winners had turned-out on the back of a run at some point in the previous 5 weeks….
It is also worth noting that all of the last 12 winners came out of a double-figure stall – as did 16 of the 24 horses that finished directly behind the winner....
-----
Finally….
Of course, what happened in the past does not guarantee the future….
Data is just data…. it doesn’t win races – horses do….
What happens this time around will all boil down to the individual horses that run on Saturday afternoon….
…. but it does no harm to be aware of what kind of horse tends to do well in a specific race….
…. it’s information you’re better-informed with than without….
That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
