Thursday, 25th July 2024
The Goodwood track is anything but straightforward….
Off the final bend, everything generally wants to be on the far side of the track….
…. and it can get desperately tight for room….
Horses often find themselves trapped in against the rail or stuck behind a wall of horses….
…. with no room to manoeuvre or proceed
…. and no option but to wait it out….
…. with the ‘out’ sometimes not coming at all….
Interference is commonplace….
…. so too argy-bargy and rough-housing….
…. and a chaotic finish up the straight can reward the horse with most street-fighting nous….
Luck plays a part too, of course….
…. a horse can be in the right place at the right time – or in the wrong place….
But skill surely plays a bigger part?
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Skill counts….
I think that’s a reasonable assumption….
…. after all, horses don’t go to post alone….
They have riders – whose role it is to assist the horse and to place it to best effect in the race....
Given the nature of big-field races around the Goodwood bends….
…. it’s reasonable to expect some riders will deal with the challenge more effectively than others....
Getting horses nicely positioned….
…. having a coherent plan….
…. knowing where to be and when best to get there….
…. understanding how and when trouble might occur….
…. and knowing how to stay out of it….
All these tricks and tactics come with experience….
…. and you’d expect that ‘local knowledge’ to express itself in the overall performance record....
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The best on Goodwood’s bends….
Performance figures drawn from turning handicaps with 10+ runners at the last nine Glorious meetings are instructive….
…. and the best of the figures appear in the table below….
The Total Place strike rate (TP%) is the key metric….
Ryan Moore and James Doyle – the 40%+ (or thereabouts) boys – are the pick of the weighing room….
Their combined record in qualifying races reads 14 wins from 102 rides – with a 40% total place strike rate….
Of course, the jockey can only do so much. In the end, it all boils down to the horse….
The jockey can execute his role to the letter but
…. if his horse isn’t good enough, if it’s too high in the handicap, or if it isn’t operating in suitable conditions….
…. then his best efforts might very well be in vain….
But if the horse does tick boxes, then I’d look on Ryan Moore or James Doyle in the saddle as a ‘positive’….
It was an approach that paid some dividends last year….
…. with Doyle landing a big gamble for this column on Johan in the Golden Mile (put up at 25s)….
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One more thing….
Horses can and do win big-field turning handicaps from double-figure stalls at Goodwood….
…. but those drawn lower get the inside line – and that’s the shortest route….
That being so it might be interesting to know which riders are best at overcoming the disadvantage a wide draw represents on the turning course….
…. and it is James Doyle who rises to the top of the barrel on this measure – with 4 wins and 4 places from 22 qualifying rides….
A wide stall is certainly no impediment to Doyle next week. He’s got the knack of turning that seeming disadvantage to his favour….
…. and that’s something worth knowing….
…. it’s another layer of intelligence to factor into your thinking ….
Most of the people you are betting against won’t be aware of it – that’s for certain….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow with picks for the weekend action….
Meantime – get a jockey’s eye view of what it’s like to be going up the straight in a race at Goodwood. View here….
Finally – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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