Wednesday, 21st August 2024
Betting advice for this afternoon – Day 1 at York’s Ebor meeting – was distributed yesterday. View it here….
Because I go out early – in search of the best possible prices about my selections – I’m always ahead of the game….
The flag hasn’t yet been raised on Day 1 – and I’m already thinking about Day 2….
…. which means the Clipper Handicap (3.00)– over the mile….
…. and the Fillies Handicap (5.20) – over the 7f trip….
Let’s get to it….
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In the Clipper – 3.00….
James McHenry went deep into my analysis….
…. but METAL MERCHANT gets the nod on the back of an interesting season….
He started out winning the Spring Cup at Newbury off a mark of 91 – and going up 5lbs to 96….
That rise didn’t put the block on him though – next time out he found just Sonny Liston too good back at Newbury for the OBS in May….
He ran a cracker in the Royal Hunt Cup – producing by far the best performance from anything starting from a single figure stall….
He travelled into the race strong – still on the bridle when a lot of others were under the pump – and he hit the front inside the final quarter mile….
His effort ultimately petered out – perhaps he didn’t quite get the stiff mile….
…. but it was a fine performance nevertheless from a disadvantaged starting berth in one of the most competitive handicaps on the programme….
Next time at Sandown he was slow to start and met with some interference….
Last time at Ascot in the International – another high-quality event – he bounced back to form and produced a career-best RPR….
I think some form readers will put that down to him dropping back to 7f….
…. but he was doing his best work late-on….
…. and I think any theories about him not getting a mile are wrong-headed – especially over a flat mile like he’ll get tomorrow….
He’s up to 98 but I think he’s got one of these big mile handicaps in him off that mark and he’s a player tomorrow at the 12s & 11s….
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In the Fillies – 5.20….
KEY TO COTAI got no kind of race last time at Haydock….
…. blocked behind horses when full-of-running and ready to challenge in the later stages….
What she did show that day was that her mark of 95 isn’t beyond her….
…. and tomorrow she can continue what has been a season of progression – with the step up to 7f the catalyst for three career-best performances – albeit conservative steps forward – on the bounce….
Last term she produced a good performance at York in a decent Nursery….
…. finishing 5/16 and finishing not so very far behind Starlust (now rated 112) and Room Service (now 105)….
That was over 6f and that pair are sprinters by trade….
…. over the specialist 7f trip I think there is more to come from Ed Walker’s charge and she’s a fair bet at the general 17/2 & 8s….
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The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 3.00 @ York….
e/w terms = Sky Bet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook pay 6 places. It’s 5 places generally…. In the 5.20 @ York….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 6 places. It’s 5 places generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but subject to fluctuation. Shop around – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
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That’s all for today….
I’ll be back tomorrow with my picks for Day 3 at York’s Ebor meeting….
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
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