The pick of the Saturday prices....

Friday, 6th September 2024

The pick of the Saturday prices….

It’s a decent day’s racing tomorrow….

…. with good handicaps at Haydock, Ascot, and Kempton….

I’m targeting bets in four races…..

…. the Old Borough Cup (2.25) and the Betfair Be Friendly Handicap (3.00) at Haydock….

…. the bet365 Handicap at Ascot (1.35)….

…. and the London Mile Series Final Handicap (3.25) at Kempton….

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In the Old Borough Cup – 2.25….

The market’s pretty much on the money with this one – all the right horses are pretty much where you’d expect them to be in the betting….

The one where I reckon there might be a little bit of mileage at the prices is KNIGHTSWOOD at the general 9s & 8s….

He didn’t stay the 2m trip last time at York – having done a little too much early doors….

…. but back down at 14f he’s interesting given what happened at Goodwood the time before that….

He endured an absolute nightmare of a passage for a quarter-of-a-mile up the straight – blocked behind a wall of horses….

When he did find daylight towards the far rail – inside the final furlong – he was fairly motoring and looked absolutely nailed on to take a hand in the finish….

…. but met more trouble in running up the inside – giving him no time to recover with the post looming fast…..

Despite all that he still managed to finish within 2-lengths of the winner and there’s no doubt in my mind that he was an unlucky loser that day….

…. or that he’s reasonably well handicapped on an unchanged mark of 88….

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In the bet365 Handicap – 1.35….

REBEL TERRITORY isn’t the biggest price at 6s & 11/2 for the bet365 Handicap at Ascot….

…. but he will relish the soft ground – they’ve had 17mm fall on the track over the last 24 hours (the forecast is for a bit more yet)….

…. and he’s in a different division than most of these when there’s plenty of give underfoot….

I must admit that The Wizard Of Eye does still look well-handicapped even though he runs off a mark of 102….

…. and he’s a deserving favourite….

…. but I’m not sure cut is really his thing and I’m happy to take him on with Lucinda Russell’s horse….

Rebel Territory is a course and distance winner – and that’s a plus at Ascot where horses tend to produce repeat performances….

He ran well for a long way on his return at Goodwood last month – he likely needed that and he’s entitled to come on for it….

On a mark of 102 he’s just a pound off his career high mark….

…. but if he can replicate – or get very close to – the performance he produced when winning last season’s Victoria Cup at the track (over 7f and on soft ground)

…. that will be enough….

And I reckon that’s feasible given that he’s done most of his racing at a mile and beyond and remains relatively unexposed at the specialist 7f….

…. the trip where – by far – he’s produced his most lucrative work out on the track….

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In the Betfair Be Friendly Handicap – 3.00….

I’m going to swing the bat at the 12s about CHANGEOFMIND for this one….

His career’s been a bit stop-start to date….

…. but there were signs last time that a corner’s been turned and I want to catch him at the double-figure price….

He was highly thought of at home last year as a 3yo….

…. winning a couple of novice events at Chester and Catterick before being fired at a brace of Listed events at York….

He bombed out in both of those and stumps were pulled on his season in July – following which he was gelded….

His first two goes this term were underwhelming and he was given a 10-week break before turning out at Hamilton – where it was much more promising….

He got beaten but produced a career-best on the RPR scale and he finished off his race much better than he had been doing….

…. despite racing on the worst ground he’s encountered….

It might be that he’s had to strengthen up a bit….

…. it might be that he’s one of those horses that simply can’t be trusted – time will tell….

But if there’s more to come then he’s not badly weighted on a mark of 90….

…. and he’s potentially more progressive than most of tomorrow’s opposition….

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In the London Mile Series Final Handicap – 3.15….

I’m having a dash at the 15/2 about LONGLAI for this one at Kempton….

He’s made nice progress since joining Michael Wigham….

…. specifically over a mile on synthetic surfaces – producing form figures of 1211….

He’s up to 87 now – but I think there’s more to come….

His neck defeat to Two Tempting back in late March at Chelmsford – in receipt of just 2lbs – looks like decent form right now….

…. when you consider that one’s won four times since and is now rated 99….

In a race where not too many have been producing of late Longlai’s got a good opportunity to get in the money again tomorrow….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back in your email box next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd