The pick of the Saturday prices....

Friday, 20th September 2024

The pick of the Saturday prices….

Ayr is the centre of the racing universe on Saturday afternoon….

…. where the Gold Cup (3.35)….

…. the Silver Cup (2.25)….

…. and the Livescore Bet Daily Extra Places Handicap (1.15)….

…. provide the quality big-field betting action for handicap fans….

Let’s get on it….

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One temptation with these big handicaps is to always be looking for the next thing…. the fresh face set to put the old guard to the sword….

But sometimes it’s the old guard you need to be wary of….

…. especially after a quiet spell during which they’ve slipped down the pecking order and off the radar….

…. and especially when there have been recent signs of imminent bounce back….

He won’t be everybody’s cup of tea in a race like the Gold Cup (3.35)….

…. but on a mark of 96, having shown a bit last time, and up at 10s in the betting….

…. ROHAAN represents a bet for me….

It seems a long time since he won back-to-back renewals of the Wokingham at Royal Ascot….

…. but he still cuts it as a 6yo….

…. and on just about the lowest rating of his career….

…. at a track he handles….

…. on ground that will suit….

…. he’s dangerous tomorrow – very dangerous….

He’s dropped from 105 at the start of the season to tomorrow’s perch….

…. which tells you he’s been out of form across he summer….

But he ran his best race this term just a fortnight back at Ascot – in a small-field race that wouldn’t have suited his pace requirements….

…. and I wonder if David Evans has got him back for September/October like he did last year….

The Gold Cup was part of all that – Rohaan finishing 7/24 and beaten just 1.75 lengths off a mark of 104….

He’s 8lb better off this time and – if he is back and firing – he’s surely got to be a player….

Earlier on the card ARAMRAM at 12s is my bet for the Silver Cup (2.25)….

It’s a tricky race and you could make a case for a least a dozen – possibly sixteen….

…. and then immediately argue the reverse point of view with equal conviction….

That’s handicaps for you – designed by the Devil to be obsessed over by fools….

Richard Hannon’s 3yo was probably a victim of some poor handicapping when awarded an opening handicap mark of 90 after finishing 5th in a slow-run novice at Doncaster in June….

I’m not saying he’ll never be worth a mark of 90 – he’ll need to be there or close to if he’s going to win tomorrow….

…. but that opening mark meant he had a stiff start to life in handicaps – and his next three goes saw him drop 7lb to 83 as he struggled to get competitive….

It clicked last weekend at Doncaster though – where he won a handicap – off that reduced mark….

He gets to go again tomorrow off the same perch….

…. and – as a 3yo in tomorrow’s field – he’s one of those participants that’s open to all manner of improvement….

He’s just a horse on a decent mark and going the right way at the right time….

In the Livescore Bet Daily (1.15), I’m siding with David O’Meara’s French-import PADISHAKH at the general 10s….

He’s zero from four goes since joining the yard from JC Rouget – via Roger Varian….

….. having finished 7th in the G1 Qatar Prix Du Jockey Club at Chantilly last June….

That’s probably what got him an opening British mark of 104….

…. but he hasn’t run up to that – and he’s dropped 11lb on the scale very quickly….

Sooner or later the mark and the day are going to come together and mesh with this one….

…. and tomorrow is a day to swing the bat….

His last two efforts have been much better and last time at Ripon he produced the best yet….

He finished off strong in the Escobar colours – and he could well be a similar type with plenty to give late-on in valuable handicaps around a mile….

He’s certainly got a major chance to get the ball rolling tomorrow off 93….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back in your inbox next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd