Friday, 27th September 2024
Newmarket & Haydock supply the best of the handicap action tomorrow….
At Newmarket I’m targeting the Cambridgeshire (3.40) – where 35 go to post….
…. whilst at Haydock the focus is on smaller races….
…. the Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap (1.30)….
…. and the My Pension Expert Handicap (3.15)….
Let’s crack on….
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They’ve had 32mm of rain in the last 24-hours at Newmarket….
…. and tomorrow’s Cambridgeshire (3.40) will be unusual insomuch as it will be contested on heavy ground….
If a 35-runner handicap isn’t a tough enough conundrum for punters to begin with….
…. underfoot conditions – to which few flat horses are truly suited – make it just that bit more of a lottery….
None of the top 3 in the market this morning – This Songisforyou, Roi De France or Godwinson – are proven on soft or worse ground….
…. and I’m more than happy to take them all on….
David O’Meara’s Bopedro was third last year off a mark of 102 and gets to go again this time around off just 93 – 3lb well in….
…. with the yard’s number one jockey Danny Tudhope in the plate….
The 8yo is no spring chicken but he’s got an obvious chance at the weights….
…. that said I’m not convinced that the ground is ideal for him….
Preference is for another of the yard’s three runners – THEORYOFEVERYTHING at the general 16s….
He definitely does appreciate a soft surface – each of his three career wins have come on soft….
…. and he arrives at Newmarket tomorrow very much in form – on the back of a win at Hamilton a fortnight back where he finished very strong on the soft surface….
…. and where he looked good value for what is effectively a 4lb rise tomorrow….
He’s a pretty tough horse and whilst stall 10 couldn’t be described as a ‘plum’ draw on the evidence of recent years….
…. all those draw stats could easily go out of the window tomorrow on ground that – despite the time of year – is far from typical for a Cambridgeshire….
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It’s a rare day when I back a jolly….
…. but at 7/2 I think WHISKEY PETE represents a bit of value in the Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap at Haydock tomorrow (1.30)….
…. at any rate you can make your own mind up whether or not you want to back him….
He’ll have to beat Rhoscolyn who got his ground at Goodwood the other day and ran out the winner of a small-field handicap….
Connections are hoping to strike again whilst the iron is hot with him – but he’s running off an effective mark of 102 under a 5lb penalty….
…. and that’s not going to be easy for him….
Raadobarg is on a much-reduced mark and demonstrated that heavy ground holds no big fears for him at the Curragh back in March….
…. but little or nothing he’s done since serves to build confidence….
If Navagio runs (also entered in the Cambridgeshire) he could step up on previous efforts given the state of the ground….
…. Earls is coming back off a break and he won’t mind the ground either….
But – all things considered – preference at the prices is for the favourite….
He had a break after his run at York in July – they’ve saved him for the softer ground….
…. and he ran well enough on return at Ascot at the start of the month….
The Beckett yard is flying right now….
…. I think there’s more to come from Whiskey Pete off a mark of 87….
….. and the 7/2 is a fair price in a 10-runner affair….
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A little later on the card at Haydock in the My Pension Expert Handicap (3.15) I’m going to take another chance on CHANGEOFMIND at the 12s….
He was too bad to be true last time at York – where he ran no kind of race….
The time before at Hamilton he’d looked like he was ready to take a step forward….
…. producing a career-best effort on a heavy surface – similar to what he’ll be running on tomorrow….
If the surface is to his liking then he has a good man on his back in Callum Shephard who excels at the Merseyside track….
…. and the 4yo could well prove quite a bit more competitive than his double-figure quote this morning implies….
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The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets…. In the 3.40 @ Newmarket….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 8 places. It’s 6 places generally…. In the 1.30 @ Haydock….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 4 places. It’s 3 places generally…. In the 3.15 @ Haydock….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 4 places. It’s 3 places generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but subject to fluctuation. Shop around – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
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That’s all for today….
I’ll be back in your inbox next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
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