Tuesday, 8th October 2024
It’s a busy week for handicap fans….
…. with races at Newmarket and York on Friday and Saturday….
This season’s Cesarewitch is run at Newmarket on Saturday....
You don’t see many races like the second leg of the ‘autumn double’....
…. with a field of 30+ horses slugging it out over a stamina-sapping trip of 2m2f trip….
…. an event that reads more like a contest over hurdles than a handicap on the flat….
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Cross-code operators….
Perhaps that’s why yards and horses more associated with the jumps have enjoyed success in recent times….
Last year, The Shunter – already a G3 winner over hurdles – came out on top for Emmet Mullins….
In 2022, Charles Byrnes won it with Run For Oscar….
In 2021, Nicky Henderson won it with Buzz – his third victory since 2003….
Alan King won with Grumeti in 2015. Philip Hobbs won with Big Easy the year before – also winning in 2006 with Detroit City….
Martin Pipe and Tony Martin are other cross-code trainers to win this century….
…. but none can match the recent record of Willie Mullins. He’s won with 3 and placed with 4 more of his 30 participants….
The 3 winners were logged in the last six renewals of the race courtesy of Low Sun, Stratum & Great White Shark– with this column on the middle one of those at prices….
…. and there have been plenty more jumps yards with horses placed in the race since 2000….
Clearly jumps horses can’t be dismissed – whoever trains them….
…. and that complicates the picture because their form is sometimes difficult to quantify against that of the flat horses who have been doing their work all summer on the turf....
But what I can tell you is that 11 of the last 18 Cesarewitch winners had already won over hurdles….
…. and 7 of the winners since the turn of the century had been involved at that year’s Cheltenham Festival….
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Noteworthy field-splitters….
Perhaps the best stat to focus on as an initial field-splitter is this: 21 of the last 22 winners of the race….
…. be they flat horses, jumps horses or dual-code horses….
…. had already won a race of some description over a trip of 2 miles or beyond....
In the Cesarewitch the field is big, the trip is long, and it always turns into a genuine test….
…. the stats suggest you need to be with a horse or horses who have proven they have the tank-capacity to get home....
The stats also suggest it is advisable to put a line through horses drawn in the highest quarter of the draw….
Being out wide on any turning track is an obvious disadvantage. In the Cesarewitch where as many as 36 runners go to post, getting caught out wide can be a disadvantage that adds up to significant and vital yardage over the two and a quarter mile trip....
In the last 22 editions of the race just a single winner started the race in a stall higher than 25….
…. and the percentage play is probably to split the field at a lower stall still….
14 of the last 22 winners ran out of stall 15 or lower….
…. 13 were drawn in stalls 1 to 13….
…. being drawn low to middle on the track is a definite racing advantage....
Form is a key consideration too. Winners of the race generally come into the contest on the back of a decent placing last time out on the turf....
Sixteen of the last 22 winners had produced a top-4 finish in their last race on the flat....
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Jocks with the knack….
If I were looking for specific jockeys in this race I’d be looking first at the mounts of Ryan Moore and Jamie Spencer....
Both have won the race – Spencer won it on Detroit City back in 2006 whilst Moore won it when he was still a fresh-faced 5lb claimer all the way back in 2002 on Miss Fara for Martin Pipe....
If we include 5th and 6th place finishes – which plenty of bookies will pay out on – Moore has placed a further 8 times from 17 additional rides in the race….
…. whilst Spencer has placed a further 3 times from 9 additional mounts....
Those might not appear to be stellar figures on the face of it – but in a race that attracts 30+ runners every year, those figures are well ahead of par....
Both riders are masters of timing and both are tactically astute and sufficiently savvy to do the business from any part of the track….
…. and they confer a definite advantage to any horse they ride on Saturday afternoon....
The final word….
There are only 28 horses entered in the race as of this morning….
…. not so good when you consider that 35 remained in the race at the same stage….
…. or that 57 were still in the race at this stage in 2021….
The maximum field size is 34. We’re already well of that and I do hope we’re not going to be too low on numbers for Saturday’s big race….
But all of that is outside of my control The final field will take shape – whatever shape that is – as the week rolls on....
But it is never too early to be well-prepared….
…. and if you’re the type of punter who likes to do a bit of his own digging, you can get to work with some of the field-splitting stats highlighted above....
It’s only Tuesday – and you can get ahead of the market….
…. if the stats and your own deliberations lead you to one or two horses that are sure to get a run, you might think about taking a price....
That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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