Angles, pointers & clues for Ascot on Saturday....

Thursday, 31st October 2024

Angles, pointers & clues for Ascot on Saturday….

Ascot provides the best of the racing on Saturday afternoon….

I’ve spent the last 24-hours digging into the historic record….

…. crunching the numbers….

…. analyzing the data….

…. and checking out the metrics….

…. in search of angles, pointers and clues that might help with the search for betting profit….

Here’s what I uncovered….

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This is worth being aware of….

Looking at data stretching back to 2010, one thing stands out – Nicky Henderson and his record on this card with horses returning off a long break….

He has a better record with his returning horses at this fixture than any other trainer in the ranks – hands down….

His last 34 horses returning off a break of 100+ days produced 8 wins and 9 additional places – a winning strike rate of 23.5% and an impressive total place strike rate of 50%....

The downside is a lack of juice in the prices – Henderson’s historic prowess at this fixture hasn’t eluded the market radar….

Six of his winners were sent off at 2s or shorter – five of the placers were sent off at 9/2 or shorter….

Of course, some punters don’t concern themselves with these price-related issues – choosing to take the view that a winner is a winner and worth having at any price….

And there are punters who might look at the numbers and determine that Henderson-trained horses are worth siding with in Placepots, Jackpots, multiples, Swinger bets and competitions like the ITV 7….

Bottom line – you probably won’t get Hollywood prices about ‘live’ Henderson runners returning off a break this weekend….

…. but the record suggests it’s handy having such horses onside (however you do it)….

And – on the off chance that the market overlooks a qualifier in the big handicaps – it’s worth having clear-eyed knowledge of the strength of the stats the market’s opposing….

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My gun-to-head angle….

Regular ATC readers might have figured out over the last couple of years that I’m a bit of a Charlie Deutsch fanboy….

He rides mainly for Venetia Williams – with Mel Rowley & Sam Thomas his other main sources of rides over the last couple of years….

His career strike-rate amounts to a relatively modest 13.6%....

.... and he’s never finished better than 15th in the jockeys championship….

On, the face of it you might dismiss him as a journeyman rider – but I think he’s a great deal better than the bare figures suggest….

…. and I know for a FACT that’s he’s produced better performance figures on the chase course at Ascot than any other rider in the weighing room over the last seven years….

His 50 qualifying rides produced 15 winners at 30%....

…. and if you’d backed them all to win at SP you’d have banked a betting profit of 44.5 points….

There are three big chases on the card at Ascot on Saturday….

Right now, I don’t know if Deutsch will be riding in any of them….

If he is – you might consider backing him. If he isn’t – then consider noting this angle for future meetings at the track….

Charlie Deutsch is a hot proposition on the chase course at Ascot – and a lot of the punters you bet against don’t know it….

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The principal target….

The Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase – over the 3m trip – is my principal target race on the Ascot card....

…. and the key stats produced by the last 18 editions offer direction….

• Nicky Henderson’s record with runners on seasonal debut stands out. That group of 8 produced a win (Roberto Goldback in 2012) and 3 places (Roberto Goldback and Triolo D’Alene – both 2013 – and On The Blind Side in 2019). But he’ll not be saddling a runner this time around…. 

• Paul Nicholls has gone close – placing with 11 of 26 participants. But he’s never actually won this race. It’s one of few valuable handicap chases to elude him – and you can bet your bottom dollar he wants to right that record sharpish. Solo and Outlaw Pete are potential runners for him on Saturday….

• Gary Moore’s won the race three times – with Antony (2016), Traffic Fluide (2018) and Larry (2021) – and he placed with three more horses from just 9 runners in total. He clearly likes to target this race with a decent candidate but – like Nicky Henderson – he’s got no suitable dart to throw this year….

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Primary considerations….

If you’re going to have a crack at digging out the winner yourself….

…. I can help you out with the strongest race pointers – based on a study of the last 18 renewals….

Here goes….

• Price – In an ideal world I want to be back ‘live’ contenders at decent prices – but the historic record for this race urges caution. Just 2 of our 18 winners justified favouritism – but 14 were sent off at 12s or shorter. Very few runners at 16s+ hit the frame and value seekers clearly need to tread carefully....

• Weight – Only 1 of 18 winners carried more than 11-03 – Gary Moore’s Traffic Fluide (2018). But only 9 went to post for that edition (only 5 carried less than 11-03) – and we usually get a bigger field than that. 13 of the last 18 winners carried 11-00 or less. 22 of 41 placers also carried 11-00 or less....

• Fitness – No doubt some punters will play the early-season fitness angle – favouring horses that have already had a blow on the track. I get it – but the stats don’t wholly frank the logic. 10 of the last 18 winners and 28 of the 41 placed horses were on seasonal debut....

• Experience – the more lightly-raced and progressive types have had the whip-hand. 13 of our 18 winners had run no more than 11 times over fences and 14 of our winners were 9 or younger….

Happy hunting!

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That’s all for today….

Back tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd