The pick of the Saturday prices....

Friday, 1st November 2024

The pick of the Saturday prices….

OUR POWER looks set to be play a big hand in tomorrow’s feature handicap….

…. the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup at Ascot (3.45)….

Key pointers in the Sodexo….

First-time-up is a good time to catch the 9yo and this morning’s general 15/2 is fair enough….

How won this same race in 2022 off a mark of 136….

…. and improved next time out – off another 100+ day break – to win the Coral Trophy at Kempton off a mark of 141….

Something was clearly amiss last term – he’s been absent from the track since falling in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury….

…. and – as is the case with a lot of other horses at this early stage of the season – readiness must be taken on trust….

But the booking of the hot conditional of the moment – Dylan Johnston (7/22 over the last 30-days) – surely suggests that Our Power is being sent to Ascot with some intent….

If trainer Sam Thomas thought he needed the run….

…. it would make more sense to run him under a non-conditional, get beaten, and get a pound or two trimmed from his mark for next time – making him a more competitive proposition when he really is ready….

Reading between the lines, I reckon he’s straight enough and ready to give a good account of himself….

We know Our Power likes the track, he’ll appreciate the ground, and on a mark of 143 with Johnston taking off the 3lb – he’s nicely weighted….

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Charlie Deutsch – my stats-based gun-to-head angle on the Ascot card – rides Martator for Ventia Williams in the Byrne Group Handicap Chase (2.05)….

…. and the pair are dangerous – make no mistake….

But for the purposes of this morning’s column – where my job is to put up the pick of the prices based on my own subjective analysis….

…. the pick of the prices would have to be Dan Skelton’s FRERE D’AREMES at the 7s….

He’s already had two runs since the end of September and you’d think he’d have an edge in match sharpness over several of tomorrow’s opponents….

He already looks well-handicapped on previous Ascot form on his mark of 125….

…. and has a conditional in the plate taking off 7lb….

Put it all together and he looks weighted to go exceptionally close if he runs his race on ground that will suit….

This looks to me like a well-handicapped horse targeted at proper money – and Dan Skelton has a good record of capitalizing on such opportunities and taking the money home with him….

I anticipate a good run at the very least….

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With the exception of Stream The Stars, the fancied horses for the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (3.15) are making their seasonal return….

At the prices – he’s up at 20s & 18s – my preference is to back AFADIL who might well come on for his run at Chepstow last month….

He always seems to need his opening blow and might well need a run or two more before he’s really on-song….

But he does look a big price for a horse that can handle big handicaps at a decent level….

Last term he won the Scottish County Hurdle at Musselburgh….

…. produced competitive performances in the Alder Hey at Aintree and in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr….

…. and he was 5th in the County Hurdle at the Festival – on ground that wouldn’t have been ideal….

He probably doesn’t have any secrets from the handicapper….

…. but in a race where everything is much-of-muchness on known form he could well represent a bit of value at the prices….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd