Tuesday, 5th November 2024
Keep it in mind for future meetings….
…. Charlie Deutsch rides the chase course at Ascot as well – if not better – than any other rider in the country….
I flagged it up as a gun-to-head angle last week….
…. and Deutsch oblibed on Saturday – his one qualifying ride on Martator producing a winner for stats followers at 6s….
Of course, I went another way in that race – backing non-placer Frere d’Armes….
…. if only I’d pay more attention to my own research occasionally….
Our Power swerved the Sodexo – the ground deemed too quick….
…. but Afadil pulled me out of the fire in the handicap hurdle….
Advised and easy to back at 18s & 20s – and with most firms paying four places – he hit the frame….
Meanwhile – at Wetherby Harry Skelton produced a 2.5 point profit in the non-handicap hurdle races….
…. an angle advised in my FREE report – Where the top jockeys make mot impact….
If you don’t already have your copy – download it here….
Onwards and upwards – we’ve got big targets at the weekend….
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The Grand Sefton….
It’s not impossible to win a Grand Sefton from off the pace….
…. Gas Line Boy won in 2017 with the Racing Post’s comments in running detailing him as ‘held up’….
In truth he was never really that far back – but these things are relative and he did come from further back than winners usually do….
Just 11 ran that day – and perhaps the small field played a part in his victory….
Only two other Grand Sefton winners since 2009 won from mid-division or wrose – and one of those also contested an 11-runner renewal….
Being up with the pace is usually the right place to be in the Grand Sefton – if you’re going to win it….
The table below details how 12 of the last 15 winners were running in the early stages….
All 12 were in the first quartile….
…. and that’s the percentage play – to be up with the pace early on. It’s not easy to make ground from the back….
Once the horses up-top get into a rhythm over the big National fences, pegging them back is a big task….
…. and hold-up horses on the chase in the later stages simply can’t afford to make mistakes….
…. any loss of go-forward momentum in that scenario will prove fatal….
Of course, the Grand Sefton isn’t the only race run over the 2m5f trip and the National fences….
…. April’s Topham Chase presents horses with pretty much the same challenge….
…. and the outcome of that race since 2009 confirms that up-front is a better place to be early doors than out-the-back….
A much bigger field goes to post for the Topham….
…. but that doesn’t change the fact that the on the pace is where you want to be….
Eleven of the last 15 Topham winners were up-front early doors….
As with the Grand Sefton the stats are not 100% rock solid….
…. horses can win a Topham from an early position of midfield or worse – but it’s the exception rather than the rule….
…. and the percentage play is to be close to the pace….
Taking the data from Grand Sefton and the Topham together – 23 of the last 30 winners were somewhere close to the pace early doors….
Punters who like a solid stat are advised to take that on board when digging out a selection for Saturday’s Grand Sefton….
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Age considerations….
Stats and trends are not a 100% reliable method of selection….
…. but they do tell us what’s happened before….
…. and it’s reasonable to consider the view that what happened most frequently before might well happen again….
Apply that rationale to Saturday’s Grand Sefton and youth is a negative….
Young horses of 6 or 7 can win – Bill Baxter (7), Dark Room (6) and As De Mee (6) all won in recent years….
…. but 77 additional qualifiers produced just 9 placers….
The sweet spot would be populated by horses aged 8 or 9 – producing 15 of the last 21 winners – and 28 more placers….
For sure, that group accounts for 146 runners in total….
…. but a win strike rate of 9.5% and a place equivalent of 19.8% is very much the trump hand….
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The Badger….
This weekend also delivers the Badger at Wincanton….
If you’re figuring out your own bet for the race….
…. the evidence produced by recent renewals is a reasonable starting point….
Consider these stats….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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