Thursday, 7th November 2024
It is inarguable that Paul Nicholls endured a poor October – at least by his own high standards….
…. a return of just four winners from 37 runners at a strike rate of 10.8% fell a long way short of what might be considered par….
This October is the only October in the last 15 seasons in which Nicholls failed to saddle a double-figure haul of winners….
…. and it’s the only time his strike rate for the month of October has fallen below 20%....
And it’s not like he hit the crossbar…. or fell just a little short of expectations based on previous performance….
In racing terms, as a group his October runners this term were miles off the pace….
Talking about his unusually slow start to the season with the Racing Post this week, Nicholls appeared to contradict himself….
First he said this….
“Don’t ask me why, but the horses have held on to their condition for longer than I can ever remember. I’m astounded how much work they have taken.”
Before following up with this….
“Also, it’s in the back of my mind that in the last couple of years, our horses have fizzled out a bit in the spring. I want them to last right through to the end of April, so I probably haven’t been too hard on them early on in the hope they will keep their form for longer and we can finish off strongly.”
Nicholls probably knows what he means….
…. but I’m left wondering if his horses have had more work put into them than usual at this stage of the season – or not enough….
It doesn’t matter….
…. punters looking for Nicholls to catch fire would normally look to November – the month in which he’s produced a bigger volume of winners than any other across the last 15 seasons – 343 of them….
…. and if you were looking to narrow the focus further you’d be very interested in Saturday’s card at Wincanton – which Nicholls has quite literally farmed since 2010 (as far back as my personal records go)….
…. his 113 qualifying runners producing a whopping 36 winners at 31.8% (no other handler has produced more than six winners over the period)….
…. figures that would make Nicholls a go-to candidate for a gun-to-head angle on this card in any normal year….
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Gun-to-head time….
This year clearly isn’t a normal year for Nicholls – but in mitigation I’d draw your attention to the following….
One – however many winners Nicholls registered in any October across the last 15 years – there were only two seasons where the haul didn’t improve in November….
Two – the omens are on the positive side a week into this November – with nine runners from his yard producing a couple of winners and three seconds….
In other words, it’s not like the cupboard is bare….
…. and almost any other trainer would be cock-a-hoop about the results Nicholls has achieved this last week….
It could be that the yard is poised to take off like a rocket this weekend….
There are no guarantees, of course….
…. but at a meeting the yard habitually works towards and targets very effectively year-on-year….
…. if you put a gun to my head and ask me for an angle that will produce betting profit….
…. I’m going to stick with the strong stats and put my faith in Paul Nicholls at his local track – in front of his own people….
If you wanted to bet a specific division of races then the non-handicap hurdle runners – 10/23 since 2010 – would be the job to focus on….
But given that Harry Cobden is the yard’s principal jockey – with the pick of the best rides….
…. and given that Wincanton – as outlined in Where the top jockeys make most impact (download your FREE copy here) – is a track where Cobden thrives….
… I’d be backing all the horses on which Nicholls & Cobden combine on Saturday afternoon….
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Roll them up….
Truth be told – I wouldn’t be backing these horses in mere singles….
…. because the prices aren’t going to be there….
Every single one of the winners Nicholls and Cobden have combined on at this meeting was sent off in the top-3 of the betting….
…. and only two went off at 3s or bigger….
The way I’d be playing is to roll up the qualifying horses in doubles and trebles….
…. looking to hit a payload – but minimizing the downside….
It might be – given the October Nicholls has had – that the market lets one or two qualifiers go off bigger than would be the case ordinarily….
…. which would represent bonus….
And – of course – you don’t have to play them all….
…. if there’s a Nicholls/Cobden qualifier you really don’t fancy at all – leave it out and reduce your overall stakes that way….
…. just make sure you leave out the right one/s!!
Alternatively, put qualifiers in your Placepot or your Jackpot….
…. have them in forecasts along with your own fancies in each race….
…. or put four in a Lucky 15 in a Betfred shop using one of their printed slips (if you get just one winner they pay out on it at double the SP)….
How you play is your call – if you even play the angle at all….
All I can do – with gun to my head – is pull the levers, crunch the numbers, and tell you what the stats reveal….
…. and what they reveal this weekend is that Nicholls & Cobden in combination can make you a few quid down at Wincanton….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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