Friday, 8th November 2024
This weekend’s quality handicap action comes from Wincanton, Aintree & Doncaster….
Before I get onto the business of picking out my idea of the best bets at the prices….
…. for pointers on the Grand Sefton at Aintree and the Badger at Wincanton – head here….
…. for this week’s gun-to-head angle – the best betting strategy based on data extracted from the historic record – go here….
…. and for a couple of handicappers of betting interest in the weeks and months ahead – click here….
Now, let’s crack on with Saturday’s betting business….
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FORWARD PLAN at 10s & 9s is my idea of the answer in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton (3.30)….
He was targeted at this race last year but – despite making a big move and featuring prominently on the turn – he was probably undone by a combination of softer ground than ideal and running from 7lb out of the handicap….
…. or perhaps he wasn’t quite as fit as trainer Anthony Honeyball thought….
He was really progressive for the rest of last season – winning good handicaps at Doncaster and Kempton and placing in two more valuable events at Doncaster and Aintree….
Given what he achieved he’s very good value for just a 6lb rise in the weights and I reckon there’s more to come yet off a mark of just 138….
If he wasn’t quite fit enough for last year’s Badger, I think Honeyball will have learnt from that….
…. and this year’s quicker surface will be very much in the 8yo’s favour….
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In the Grand Sefton at Aintree (2.40) I like IDALKO BIHOUI at the 10s….
He’s only a 6yo – which goes against the dominant race stats….
…. but the stats are a guide rather than the gospel – and I think he could be underestimated….
We certainly haven’t seen the best of him yet – and he’s surely going to prove plenty better than his mark of 132….
He never really got into a rhythm last season – falling on seasonal debut, underwhelming for no apparent reason at Kempton, and showing a bit whilst never really threatening at Cheltenham in April….
The one time it all fell into place was at Cheltenham in October when he won a novice handicap in good style – looking like a nice prospect – with an authoritative performance from the front….
That style of running is well-suited to tomorrow’s assignment, he goes well fresh, he’s reported to be in good form, and he’s been actively targeted at and prepared for this race….
Another plus is Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle for his father, Nigel. He’s got plenty of winning form over the National fences – think Hello Bud, Little Josh, and Bill Baxter (riding for Warren Greatrex) – plus a fair few placed efforts….
If Idalko Bihoui takes to the big fences – it’s always an ‘if’ – he could run a big one at a nice price….
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It’s the last day of the flat season and the November Handicap is the last race on the card at Doncaster (3.45)….
Jamie Spencer takes the ride on STRESSFREE – and the 4yo is the bet at 12s….
Spencer is on a losing streak that runs to 41 rides….
…. but closer inspection of the record shows that he’s gone close in a couple of big-field handicaps over the last fortnight….
…. not least on tomorrow’s mount in a 10f handicap on soft ground at this track….
That day horse and rider were denied a clear-run at the quarter-mile pole – and tomorrow’s assignment feels like it might be a stab at redemption….
It’s certainly the case that Spencer heads to Doncaster for just this one ride at the end of the afternoon….
…. and you’d think he must feel like it’s worth it at the end of a long summer….
The horse moves up to tackle the 12f trip for the first time – and you could read that as a desperate move on the part of connections determined to roll the dice with no other race options available….
…. and it could well turn out to be so….
But this horse has been staying on at the end of his races over a mile-and-a-quarter, and Spencer – taking his first ride on the horse last time – might well have put the idea into David O’Meara’s mind….
He’s a shrewd reader of pace, he can unlock improvement in these handicappers, and – like I say – he’s going up o Town Moor for just the one ride. It might be the case that he feels invested in the plan….
I think the 4yo is worth a punt at the price….
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The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets…. In the 3.30 @ Wincanton….
e/w terms = Sky Bet & Betfred pay 4 places. It’s 3 places generally…. In the 2.40 @ Aintree….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 5 places. It’s 4 places generally…. In the 3.45 @ Doncaster….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 7 places. It’s 6 & 5 places generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but subject to fluctuation. Shop around – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
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That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
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