Wednesday, 13th November 2024
My selections didn’t run bad on Saturday….
…. two ran well enough to pay out on Extra places – depending on where you struck your bet….
…. but they weren’t good enough to bag what we’re really looking for – the win at a nice price….
On the other hand, my gun-to-head angle did the business for the third week running….
…. Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden combining to produce four winners from six bets at Wincanton….
The four-timer paid out to SPs at a shade short of 22s….
I don’t expect anybody played it exactly that way….
…. but there was money to be made from the qualifiers….
Did you make any of it?
Let me know at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
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Paddy Power Gold Cup pointers….
It’s a BIG meeting at Cheltenham this weekend – I’ll be playing in the big handicaps on Saturday & Sunday….
The feature handicap on Saturday’s is the Paddy Power Gold Cup over the 2m4f trip and 16 fences on the Old course….
The strongest stats – across 24 editions of the race – relate to track experience….
…. 23 winners had already appeared at the track – either over fences or hurdles….
…. 20 had run at the track more than once….
…. 16 had won over fences – whilst two more had gone very close. 2018 winner Baron Alco had finished 2/24 in a big Festival handicap whilst 2019 winner Happy Diva had found just one horse too good at the track on two occasions....
As entries stand right now, the tick box does remain empty alongside the names Lets Go Champ, Hartur D’Arc & Kotmask – none of whom have run at the track before. Imagine has run at the track just once….
The historic record also suggests underlining trip winners. The last 22 winners conformed. In this year’s entries that stat would discount Editeur Du Gite & Imagine….
And the race favours up-and-coming chasers. 20/24 winners had raced over fences 12 times or fewer – so too 53/65 placed horses. The stat ranks a negative for Protektorat, Ga Law, Editeur Du Gite, Janidil, Fugitif, Il Ridoto & Gemirande….
Seventeen horses are entered this morning – six have official ratings of 150+. It’s not impossible to win off 150+. Cyfor Malta won off 154 in 2002, Al Ferof off 159 in 2012, Taquin Du Sueil off 156 in 2016, and Stage Star off 155 in 2023. Multiple 150+ horses have placed….
But it’s important to note that three of those four 150+ winners already had solid track records in chases at open G1 level. They were already battle-hardened and used to putting it up to senior horses of similar stamp….
They’d already proven their class and each was taking a step back to race in a Paddy Power – rather than being asked to take a big step forward at an early stage of the season….
Also consider this – an additional 81 horses rated north of 150 since 2002 all got beaten….
…. and this – 17/24 winners were rated at least 10lbs lower on official ratings than the top rated horse. Nine were 15lbs+ lower….
Other points to bear in mind when you come to analyse Saturday’s race….
…. 11/25 winners of the race were seven, which is more than double the tally of any other age group. Three of the last eight winners have been aged nine, but no horse aged above nine has won the race since Clear Cut back in 1975….
…. 9/24 winners were trained by either Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008, 2010 and 2017), Jonjo O’Neill (2006, 2013 and 2016) or Paul Nicholls (2012, 2014 & 2023). Edward O’Grady (2009) is the only Irish-based trainer to win the race since 1980….
…. 15/24 winners were sent off at single-figure odds. Shooting Light (9/4 in 2001) is the shortest-priced winner and Splash of Ginge (25s in 2017) is the longest-priced winner….
…. 7 of the last 8 winners had been given a prep run….
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Stick with the plan….
Forward Plan didn’t run as well as I’d hoped in Saturday’s Badger at Wincanton – where he finished fourth but got beaten 31-lengths by Al Dancer….
Perhaps he was always too far behind in a race where they were strung out very early – with Al Dancer pushing the pace all the way….
Anthony Honeyball’s charge was making ground when he was hampered by Remastered’s fall – but he was never going to win from where he was, and he didn’t really see out the final stages of the race….
The official assessor has dropped him a pound to a revised rating of 137 on the back of Saturday’s effort and I think this horse is well-handicapped….
He won the £85k Coral Trophy at Kempton in February off 133 – beating Al Dancer that afternoon….
…. and next time at Aintree he placed in the £56k William Hill Handicap Chase off his current mark of 137….
…. looking a long way from being a busted flush at the weights….
Saturday didn’t go to plan – but there’s more to come yet from this 8yo….
He’s four from eleven over fences – a healthy strike rate….
…and he came on 11lb, 8lb, and 9lb for his first run in the last three seasons….
He’s a good bet to strike again at some point this term – and I’m sticking him my Watch List….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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