Thursday, 14th November 2024
The established thinking is….
…. and I’ve certainly read and heard this enough times….
…. that it’s difficult to make up ground over fences on Cheltenham’s Old course at trips up to 3-miles….
…. and – that being so – prominent racers enjoy an advantage….
Of course, we’re talking horse racing here – a sport custom-designed to make little or no sense….
…. nothing is simple, reliable, or straightforward….
…. we’re always playing percentages – at best….
…. and sometimes – more often than most punters care to admit – evidence provided by reality does little to support prevailing theories or received wisdoms….
That’s certainly the case with the reality produced by the last 22 editions of Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup….
Twelve of those races were won by horses running in midfield or further back in the early stages of the race….
In other words – prominent racers don’t always have the edge in the race….
…. and – in any ordinary year – there’s no long-term race evidence to support the idea that a hold-up horse is an outright bad bet….
But this is no ordinary year….
There’s been very little rain…. the ground is riding fast…. and front-end racers have won pretty much all the big chases run to date this term….
…. here and over the water in Ireland….
It’s just something to be aware of when you come make your pick for Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup….
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More than one way to play….
Whenever I play a handicap race my basic objective is to back a ‘live’ contender at the wrong price….
Easy said. But how do you go about finding such horses?
That’s the million-dollar question....
Every race is unique….
…. there’s no one element of voodoo that works the magic every time….
…. and every punter has his own way of doing things....
Me? I take each race on its own merits….
…. I study the runners and riders – from multiple angles….
…. and I see what jumps out at me....
It’s a time consuming process requiring plenty of focus and energy….
…. and that’s why most punters don’t bother with the ‘homework’ aspect of the game....
No problem. Each to his own….
…. my way isn’t the only way, after all....
Another way to play the races is to find a qualified angle of approach that will put you into play across a series of races – rather than just one….
…. and by qualified angle – I mean one with a history of producing winners, placers & betting profit....
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Gun-to-head time at Cheltenham….
It’s time to put my money where my mouth is….
Gun-to-head now – here’s an angle for this weekend’s meeting at Cheltenham: support chasers ridden by Harry Skelton....
Yesterday, I highlighted key pointers for the Paddy Power Gold Cup – based on the historic record….
The strongest stats – across 24 editions – relate to track experience....
…. 23 winners had already appeared at the track – over fences or hurdles…. 20 had run at the track more than once…. 16 had banked a previous win at the track….
Of course, horses – whatever race they run in over the weekend – aren’t the only participants that might have previous form at the track….
…. jockeys are of interest too….
After all, the jockey is the only human who can influence a horse’s performance once a race is underway….
…. and it stands to reason that jockeys with a knack for riding a specific track might represent an advantage to horses on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday at Cheltenham….
One thing is for sure with Harry Skelton – he rides the Old course fences as well as anybody in the weighing room….
Since the beginning of 2020, his 37 qualifying rides have produced eight winners at a high-quality strike rate of 21.6%....
…. and an additional seven places – for a very healthy total place strike rate of 40.5%....
There are eight chase races across the meeting at Cheltenham this weekend (discounting Friday’s Cross County Chase)….
…. and Skelton is sure to get some ‘live’ ones to ride from brother Dan….
…. who is chasing the trainers championship…. and who is always hungry for winners
…. especially at the big meetings…. and especially at the home of jumps racing….
You don’t have to bet qualifiers blind – if you don’t want to….
…. you can always study individual horses and then take a view….
…. but all Skelton’s rides over the fences on the Old course are worth your consideration this weekend. That’s my deduction....
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Looking for the Greatwood winner?
The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle is the feature handicap on Sunday’s card….
…. and if your intention is to dig out the winner then class has to be high on your list of preferred field-splitters – 9/10 winners of the race had already appeared in a C1 race….
Grizzled veterans are not the order of the day – 17/20 winners had been tried fewer than ten times over timber ahead of turning out for this contest….
15/20 winners have been aged 4 or 5. By contrast, no horse aged eight or above has won the race since Rooster Booster in 2002….
Serial winners need not apply – 20/22 winners had won no more than four times over timber….
As with the Paddy Power Gold Cup, course form is a significant consideration – 14/22 winners had appeared at Cheltenham previously….
The Irish have won just 3/20 renewals….
15/24 winners were sent off at single-figure odds. Detroit City (6/5 in 2006) is the shortest-priced winner and Rigmarole (33s in 2003) is the longest-priced winner….
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One last thing….
Richmond Lake ran a cracker in Saturday’s Grand Sefton at Aintree – despite not going into the race fully wound-up according to his trainer Donald McCain….
He was giving plenty of weight to the three horses that beat him home, and he had the fifth horse home 8-lengths in arrears….
With four wins from his 11 goes over fences he’s surely a better chaser than he was a hurdler – yet is rated 6lb lower over fences on his current mark of 142….
He’s fallen rapidly from a career-high perch of 150, I reckon he’s well-handicapped heading forward, and he’s a strong candidate to land money for connections and punters at some point this term….
He’s going onto the Watch List….
That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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