The pick of the Saturday prices....

Friday, 15th November 2024

The pick of the Saturday prices….

This weekend’s quality handicap action comes exclusively from Cheltenham….

…. I’m targeting bets tomorrow and on Sunday….

Look out for me in your email box tomorrow morning with picks for Sunday’s target races….

Before I get onto the business of picking out my idea of the best bets at the prices on tomorrow’s card….

…. find pointers for Saturday’s feature handicap – the Paddy Power Gold Cup – here….

Meanwhile, go here for my latest gun-to-head angle – covering all three days of Cheltenham’s November meeting….

…. and for field-splitters you might use to get a handle on Sunday’s Greatwood Handicap Hurdle….

Now, let’s crack on with the betting business….                    

…. and see if we can’t twist a few quid out of the game this weekend….

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The obvious horse has been well-found in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.25)….

Ginny’s Destiny could well be a Grade 1 horse in the making….

…. and any improvement on the performance he put up when second to Grey Dawning in the Turners at the Festival will make him hard to beat off a mark of 155….

But he is first-time-up, he might just need it, and all his best work has been done on a softer surface….

He’s short enough. As is Imagine – who could be anything but is very inexperienced for a race of this nature and who might also just need his first run….

Ga Law and Il Ridoto both have form at the track, have both had a prep run, and must enter calculations – but they too have already found market favour….

I’m inclined to have a big swing of the bat on JANIDIL….

The stats tell you he’s bang up against it as a 10yo and his form record tells you he never quite made the grade in Open G1 company….

…. but it’s not so very long ago he was putting up performances worth 160+ on the RPR scale….

…. and on a mark of 153 – down in handicap company – he  could still have sufficient reserves of talent to outrun big quotes of 33s and 25s….

…. at a track where he’s gone well before and on ground he might just appreciate….

He’s back down to this trip for the first time since he was officially rated in the 160s, he’s sporting first-time blinkers, and Brian Hayes is over for the ride….

He could be well-handicapped – weighted to run a big one for his top trainer – and he’s a big price for a horse with a bit of class….

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ZEEBAND seems a big price at this morning’s general 14s for the From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle (2.55)….

His trainer – and rider – won this race last year with Buddy One….

…. and Zeeband took in exactly the same prep-race at Galway last month….

…. giving the impression that he’s on the same step plan….

Buddy One won that Galway race whilst Zeeband found one too good – a horse trained by Willie Mullins that improved 10lb for the step up in trip….

 …. but Zeeband only got beaten a neck and the rest were plenty further back from the front pair….

He’s back up in trip tomorrow – but is pretty much unexposed at 3m – and he won’t mind the ground….

Plenty of tomorrow’s opposition didn’t fire first-time-up this term and this race-fit Irish horse might just be underestimated at a double-figure quote….

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Olly Murphy’s LONG DRAW looks a fair bet at 8s for the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (3.30)….

He’s found one too good the last three times on the bounce – the last time at Aintree last month….

That was an Open C2 – but it wasn’t the strongest such race you’re going to see….

…. and tomorrow’s C3 might well prove the tougher assignment – albeit for less money….

What I like about Long Draw is that he’s clearly match-fit….

…. he’ll handle the ground….

…. and I reckon he’ll improve for the stiffer test at the trip tomorrow….

At Worcester, Warwick, and Aintree – his last three ports of call – his finishing effort gave the impression that he needed further….

He’s not going up to 3m tomorrow – which he surely will do in time – but the ups-and-downs and the stiff finish over 2m5f tomorrow will surely sit his running style better than those last three venues….

He’s been going up the rankings in defeat – never ideal – but on a mark of just 118 he’s got a nice racing weight and he can outrun his price under Sean Bowen….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd