Thursday, 21st November 2024
The official assessor has raised Il Ridoto 8lbs to 149 for his win in Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup….
That’s a career high mark….
…. and given that he’s unlikely to be improving into a 150s horse at this stage of his career….
…. what this rise means – effectively – is that the 7yo has done all the winning he’s going to do this term….
In a chase career stretching back 21 runs, Il Ridoto has run 11 times off an official mark of 143 or bigger….
…. and he only got close to troubling the scorer one time in that sequence of runs….
…. when finishing second in last season’s December Gold Cup – beaten a short head by Fugitif….
That was off 143 – at the lower end of his ‘too-high’ scale….
Off 149 – his new mark – the tin lid is well and truly screwed down….
Back in April – ahead of the Topham at Aintree – trainer Paul Nicholls was talking about his mark of 146 being “too stiff”….
He’s 3lb ahead of that mark now – and it’s going to take a couple of losing runs – at least – to get back down to even that perch….
Bottom line – it’s going to be a while – and several runs – before Il Ridoto goes in again….
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Champion Hurdle material?
I’ll be interested to see what the handicapper does with Burdett Road….
…. winner of Saturday’s Greatwood Hurdle on just his fourth start over timber….
Because the race was run on Sunday, we won’t find out until next Tuesday morning how the official handicapper reacts to his performance….
…. but my feeling is he’ll be up 10lbs to a revised mark of 143….
Immediately after Sunday’s race, connections were talking the 4yo up as a Champion Hurdle horse….
Trainer, James Owen, had this to say….
“It's still a long way to go but obviously on his Flat form, he's more than capable of getting there and we'll aim that way.”
Jockey Harry Cobden told reporters this….
"He's obviously got a lot to improve, but you have to chuck him in the (Champion Hurdle) mix now, because once he's done with handicapping, he hasn't got many other places to go."
Positive vibes like that – combined with a generally-available Champion Hurdle price tag of 33s – might tempt a few people into taking a long-range punt….
…. but I wouldn’t be one of them….
Sunday’s performance was impressive enough on the eye – but the time figure wasn’t outstanding….
…. and a winning RPR of 143 is not only 6lb below the average level of performance required to win the race over the last two decades….
…. but it also falls more than stone short of what’s generally required to get competitive enough to win a Champion Hurdle….
…. 21of the last 27 horses to win the Festival G1 had already scored 160+ on the RPR scale….
Like James Owen says: there’s still a long way to go….
And I’m not sure why Harry Cobden thinks the horse is finished with handicaps….
Even if the handicapper puts Burdett Road up 15lbs for Sunday’s win – he’ll still only be rated 148….
…. and a horse with genuine Champion Hurdle aspirations should be winning any valuable 2m handicap hurdle run in Britain off that mark….
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My takeout from the Greatwood….
Under Adam Wedge – taking his first ever ride for trainer Emmet Mullins – Toll Stone was the very definition of a ‘spare’ in Sunday’s Greatwood….
He carried bottom weight and there was absolutely zero confidence in the market about the horse on the day – he drifted out from 16s on Saturday morning to 33s at the off….
…. but I thought he produced an encouraging performance to finish seventh….
He was out the back and running wide early doors…. he made some headway between three and two out…. and he kept on up the hill….
He was never close enough to be put into the race serious….
…. and there never looked to be any serious intention to get him close enough to go that way….
In short, it was one of those performances that I’d describe as ‘quiet’ and – potentially – ‘interesting’….
The 4yo ran off a British mark of 121 – 5lbs in advance of his Irish mark – on ground that would have been the quickest he’s encountered….
…. and on just his sixth go over timber – in which produced a career-best hurdle RPR – it would have been a learning exercise….
… for either horse or trainer – perhaps both….
Given his trainer and given this jaunt across the Irish sea – so early in his hurdling career and with so little apparent intention on the day – my antenna is twitching a little….
Toll Stone is surely going to prove a stack better than his Irish mark in time, and I think he’s one to take an interest in – both in Ireland and when he turns up again over here….
He’s going on to the Watch List….
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Gun to head time….
Regular readers will know how much I like Charlie Deutsch on chasers….
…. especially at Ascot – where he landed a gun-to-head profit for this column last month….
They’re racing at Ascot on Saturday, but Charlie Deutsch won’t be attending….
…. he’s heading up to Haydock – principally for the ride on Royale Pagaille in the Betfair Chase….
But Deutsch will be at Ascot tomorrow afternoon. There are three chases on the card – and he takes a ride in each for principal patron Venetia Williams….
Deutsch has a stellar record over fences at Ascot – 16 winners from his last 51 qualifiers at a top-drawer 31.4%....
If you’d backed them all to win at SP to level stakes you’d be sitting on a betting profit of 51 points….
If you’re punting the Ascot card tomorrow – I wouldn’t put you off backing his three chase rides (however you want to do it) blind….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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