Wednesday, 27th November 2024
In ATC today….
Charlie Deutsch delivers a betting profit at Ascot (again)….
…. a 27-year-old dataset reveals key stats on which to split Saturday afternoon’s Coral Gold Cup field….
…. and we find out what makes Newbury both a fair and potentially foul experience for chasers….
Oh…. and make a note in your 2025 diary about this one – because profitable old patterns are definitely repeating themselves….
Read on….
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Double Deutsch!
Kotmask finished second in Saturday’s Hurst Park at Ascot….
…. which is as good as it got for my weekend picks….
But my gun-to-head angle delivered for the fourth time in five weeks on Friday….
…. when Charlie Deutsch rode two winners from three rides over fences at Ascot….
…. the second time this term he’s obliged with a betting profit for this column at the Berkshire track….
TN was on and wrote in with this….
“Great call, Nick. I backed his 3 chase rides today blind, for a total outlay of £20 in singles, £1 doubles, and a 10 bob e/w treble. I got £90 back (cashed out the treble after first 2 winners). That’s my Saturday betting paid for and a curry for her indoors into the bargain!!”
I’ll have another gun-to-head angle for you tomorrow….
…. so tune in for that….
Meantime, did you get on the Deutsch rides at Ascot on Friday?
Let me know: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
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The big one on Saturday….
Saturday delivers a big one….
…. the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury – the biggest chase handicap this side of Christmas….
…. winners of which frequently tick specific boxes….
A strong winning strike rate over fences – just 11 since 1994 were below 40%....
…. 21/27 winners had produced a chase performance worth 153+ on the RPR scale….
…. 20/27 had scored a Topspeed figure over fences of 132+….
And winners – second season chasers are particularly well-suited – tend to have specific levels of experience….
…. 26/27 winners had raced 4+ times over fences….
…. whilst 22/27 had run no more than 12 times….
Any horse ticking these boxes on Saturday has solid claims….
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More statistical considerations….
Should you trust a horse yet to win a chase at 3m+? The stats say – on balance – no….
24/27 winners had won at trips between 24f and 26f – or beyond….
…. a Coral Gold Cup is generally no place for a horse with stamina unproven. This high-quality test often finds such horses out….
Is an experienced handicapper – one that’s already declared its hand in the handicaps – a good bet?
There are no hard-and-fast rules. There are situations in which I’d back such a horse. But the stats suggest it’s unwise....
…. 21/27 had won just a single handicap chase or none – and were most likely ahead of the handicapper….
Put faith in the stats and you might split the field on age – scratching all horses younger than 6 and all older than 8….
…. 24/27 winners fell into that age-band….
And give some consideration to previous Newbury form.
…. a run at the track – over hurdles or fences – has been a significant pointer.
…. 18/27 had already appeared at the track….
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A stiff proposition….
Newbury is a flat galloping track and enjoys a fair reputation….
…. the track doesn’t discriminate with a bias….
That being so, you’d think horses could win from anywhere….
…. there’s nothing in the track’s topography or layout that leaps out as a feature that would favour one mode of racing over another….
At least until you examine the fences….
The fences at Newbury are among the stiffest in British racing. They take some jumping – and they don’t take prisoners….
Hit a Newbury fence at speed and you will know about it. You’re not going to brush through it….
If you get lucky and you land on your feet, don’t rely on that luck continuing….
Keep hitting fences at Newbury and you will come a cropper….
At best you’ll lose momentum and ground – plenty of it….
…. at worst you’ll go arse about elbow….
Bottom line: dodgy jumpers get found out at Newbury….
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Early position….
If you’re going to win a race like the Coral Gold Cup, hitting fences – however stiff or easy – shouldn’t form part of the plan….
Fact is in the Coral Gold Cup – a big-field race where top handicappers go flat out from early on….
…. mistakes are probably easier to recover from when you’re on the pace rather than stuck out the back….
It isn’t impossible to make up ground from the back in the second half of this race – Newbury is a fair track after all….
…. and the last three winners – Datsalrightgino, Le Milos, & Cloudy Glen – were all midfield or further back in the early stages….
But having to make up ground late on – over stiff fences – will put additional pressure on your jumping….
…. at a point when the end game is unfolding in front of you….
…. and your horse is likely tiring….
At that point, you absolutely have to get every fence right….
…. if you make a mistake that loses ground and momentum, it will probably prove conclusive….
Of course, adaptable horses can change running styles….
…. and things can go the other way too….
If the front runners go too hard too early on….
…. a pace collapse can play directly into the hands of horses further back in the field….
But the bottom line is that up-front has been the place to be in more recent editions of Saturday’s race than not….
…. 10 of the last 15 winners were described as making all; tracking the leaders; chasing the leaders; with the leaders; or simply in-touch in the early stages of the race….
…. and if they get the fractions right up-front on Saturday, hold-up horses will have a job on their hands to make up ground….
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On manoeuvres….
Memories fade – so a brief reminder....
Back in February 2022 Kitty's Light finished 2/14 in the Coral Trophy at Kempton....
…. next up he was 2/23 in the Scottish Grand National At Ayr….
…. and then he went to Sandown where he was 3/15 in the bet365 Gold Cup....
For those three races he was rated 140, 143 & 145....
In February 2023 trainer Christian Williams got Kitty's Light down to 132 before heading to Newcastle for the Eider – which the horse won....
Next up he won the Scottish Grand National off 140....
.... and then – just a week later – he went he went back to Sandown for another crack at the bet365 Gold Cup….
…. where he won off the same mark of 140 (6lb well in)....
Kitty’s Light is still only an 8yo (rising 9) but hasn't won in seven chase assignments since....
.... finishing 13/20; 7/21; 5/32; 9/20; 6/11; 9/10; and PU/10 at the weekend....
As a consequence he's back down from a career-high mark of 147 to a current rating of 137....
Earlier this year Williams went a different route with his star chaser – taking in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival and the Grand National at Aintree....
.... before once again finishing off for the season at Sandown....
I don't know what Williams is planning this time around....
.... and – right now – his charge looks about as potent as flat lemonade....
But the trainer's got a cracking mark to work with once again – when he’s ready to get going again properly with this horse....
On previous form, I'd mark February 1st in my 2025 dairy as a date after which Kitty's Light becomes of considerable interest to handicap punters again....
It’s just something to be aware of….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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