Thursday, 28th November 2024
In ATC today….
…. there’s a favourite I can’t argue with tomorrow – he’s well ahead of the handicapper….
…. there’s a jockey who represents a real advantage – to horse and punter – over the fences at Newbury. Few ride them better….
…. plus there’s an extra-potent sweet spot in his track record – where he’s produced a 9/21 record since the start of 2018 – plus betting profits….
Oh…. and that horse I was taking about…. and that jockey…. are a big part of this week’s gun-to-head business….
Marching on….
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Galop De Chasse is favourite for tomorrow’s 2.30 at Newbury….
…. he’s up at 5/2 – and I can’t really argue with it….
I put the 8yo onto my Watch List earlier this month….
…. following his return to the track at Wetherby. I said this….
“…. the progress made by Kandoo Kid over the last 12-months pays a compliment to the Williams horse [Galop De Chasse]….
…. and also gives some indication of how well-handicapped Galop De Chasse could prove on a mark of just 133….
There’s almost certainly more to come at trips of 2m to 2m4f and he’ll be better for the run at Wetherby last week – which he was entitled to need….”
I said a few other things too – you can see it all here….
The bottom line is that Kandoo Kid runs in Saturday’s Coral Gold Trophy at Newbury off an official mark of 145….
Trainer Paul Nicholls describes his horse as ‘fairly handicapped’ and says the 8yo has ‘got a chance’….
In so doing he concedes the belief that there’s something to come – because his horse has no chance whatsoever if he’s handicapped to the hilt or anything like it….
Reading between the lines – always dangerous, so tread careful – I’d say Nicholls think’s Kandoo Kid is a 150+ horse….
…. but he’s just not sure how much that + will come to represent in time….
Any improvement produced by Kandoo Kid on Saturday – any at all – will reinforce how nice a mark 133 is likely to be for Galop De Chasse….
…. if not tomorrow – then certainly at some point in the not too distant….
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A big advantage….
Of course, trainer Venetia Williams is humming along….
…. she’s produced five winners from a dozen runners across the last seven days….
That’s a big positive….
…. so too is having Charlie Deutsch in the saddle….
He’s in even better form with four winners from nine rides across the week….
…. including that G1 win on Royale Pagaille in the G1 Betfair Chase on Saturday….
He’s riding out of his skin and confidence must by sky-high….
It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of Deutsch – but I’m also a student of his performance record….
…. and I can tell you for sure that there aren’t many riders better over the stiff fences at Newbury – especially at trips between 2m and 2m4f….
His last 21 qualifying chase rides at those trips produced nine winners at 42.9% and betting profits – qualifiers backed to level stakes at just SP – total 24.6 points….
Galop De Chasse runs over the 2m4f trip tomorrow afternoon….
…. and – in my book – Deutsch is a big positive on what is his sole ride on the card ….
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Gun-to-head time….
Now, I don’t want to turn this column into the Charlie Deutsch show – BUT….
…. he’s already produced the goods under the gun at Ascot – TWICE – this term….
…. and there’s no getting away from the numbers….
Over fences at Newbury – at all trips – since the beginning of 2018….
…. Charlie Deutsch is 12 winners from 44 rides at 27.5%....
…. and backed to SP at level stakes he shows a betting surplus of 44.6 points….
In summary, he rides winners in handy numbers – and he’s probably under-bet….
…. or – to put it another way – he produces performance level and profit….
Galop De Chasse is a qualifier on this gun-to-head angle in Friday’s 2.30. He’s 5/2 now – he was 3s when I started writing this column….
…. so too Demnat in Saturday’s 12.40 – the Peter O’Sullevan Memorial. There’s no prices up yet….
…. and Victtorino in Saturday’s 3.00 – the Coral Gold Cup. He’s around the 7s mark….
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Over to you….
Gun-to-head angles are fact-based – backed-up by numbers….
They put you into play across a series of races – rather than just one….
…. and you can make use of qualifiers however you see fit….
There’s no right or wrong way of playing….
Bet horses individually – to win or each-way….
Take prices early…. bet to SP…. or Betfair SP…
Do them in doubles….
Put them in Placepots or Jackpots with the Tote….
Put them in your Swinger bets…
Use them as legs in competitions like the ITV 7….
How you do it is down to you – and will depend very much on your preferred style of play….
… I did the spadework and dug out the best angle based on the data I consulted….
In other words, my work is done – the rest is up to you….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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