Swinging the bat on New Year's Day....

Tuesday, 31st December 2024

Swinging the bat on New Year’s Day….

In ATC today….

…. I swing the bat at a couple of the New Year’s Day handicaps….

I’m on LISNAMULT LAD in the 2.05 at Cheltenham – he’s up at 10s & 9s….

…. and I’m on DEEP CAVE at 9s & 8s in the 2.40 at Cheltenham….

That’s the summary….

…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….

Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below…. 

Read on….

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In the 2.05 at Cheltenham….

The right horses are at the top of the market for the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (2.05)….

…. in the shape of Gemirande, Springwell Bay and Colonel Harry….

I’ve got no arguments with that trio….

…. but my job isn’t to simply rubberstamp what the market is already calling out loud and clear….

Instead, my role – albeit self-appointed – is to find an alternative option that can run a big race at a price….

…. and in this instance I’m going for LISNAMULT LAD at the 12s….

He’s just five runs into his chase career and there’s almost certainly more to come from him….

Whether or not he produces it tomorrow is open to conjecture – and the proof will (or won’t) be in the pudding….

…. but connections are ambitious for him – talking about turning up at the Festival before a crack at the Irish Grand National (which appears to be the main target)….

On an Irish mark of 134 he’d have got into last year’s renewal – but that rating wouldn’t have guaranteed him a run in other years….

The bottom line is that they do need to go up a few pounds – and they’re not going to get too many cracks at it….

Turning up here is a statement of intent to some degree – easier races could surely have been found at home….

He’s got a win at the track, of course – he made all to win on the Old course at the October meeting….

The form of that contest hasn’t worked out particularly well….

…. and this is a much deeper race and a much tougher assignment….

But he showed guts that last day at Cheltenham and he was going well in the Troytown – a valuable handicap at Navan – before falling in November….

 Perhaps this is a looksee for a tilt at the Plate at the Festival in March….

…. and I’m barking up the wrong tree….

But taking his presence literally and factoring in the progression he’s surely going to make – at some point – he’s a fair bet at the 10s & 9s….

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In the 2.40 at Cheltenham….

I’m backing DEEP CAVE at the 9s & 8s in the Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (2.40)….

Trainer Christian Williams hasn’t had him for long – taking charge for just two runs since his arrival at the yard from France in October….

His last go at Cheltenham in October – where he was 5/12 and beaten almost 10-lengths – was his first go at 3m….

He got done for a bit of toe that day on quick ground – but the way he finished the race off really caught the eye….

He was pretty much out the back as they came down the hill on the Old course and made the turn for home….

…. but he really stuck to his task and passed plenty of runners in the closing stages….

That effort proved he stays and on softer ground tomorrow on the New course – that favours stamina over speed – he could well be seen to better effect still….

…. and he could well be nicely handicapped on just 130 when you consider he’s totally unexposed at staying trips….

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Now, just to recap….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back on Thursday….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd