Swinging the bat on Friday....

Thursday, 16th January 2025

Swinging the bat on Friday….

In ATC today….

…. I’m having a go at a couple of tomorrow afternoon’s handicaps….

I’m on SMARTY WILD in the 2.35 at Market Rasen – he’s up at 10s ….

…. and I’m on TOUR OVALIE at 25s & 20s in the 3.35 at Windsor….

That’s the summary….

…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….

Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below…. 

Read on….

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The Final of the Veterans’ Handicap Chase Series finally gets the green light at Market Rasen tomorrow (2.35)….

…. via aborted attempts at Sandown & then Warwick (both meetings abandoned)….

I’m sticking with the horse I picked-out ahead of the Sandown abandonment – SMARTY WILD at the general 10s….

He’d reappeared at Haydock in early December off a 690-day break….

…. and it was always going to be a cobweb-removal job….

He travelled nicely-enough – for as far as he went – before emptying like he needed it….

He was pulled-up without being pushed by his rider….

The upside of that run is that he qualified for this final very much under the radar….

…. and he’s dropped-on with the switch to Market Rasen – because he likes going right-handed….

I just think he stands out as a potential ‘surprise’ package – running off a mark in the 120s for only the second time in a 15-chase career….

For sure, he’s 2lb out of the handicap….

…. but I’m not going to worry about that….

He’s not got many miles on the clock compared to a large part of the opposition….

…. and he gets plenty of weight from a couple of the of most fancied runners….

He’s had to wait for this race to be rescheduled….

…. and was entered-up in a couple of alternative engagements during the meantime….

I hope the enforced break has worked for him rather than against him….

His yard is 5/9 over the last 14 days – and that’s a positive-enough omen….

TOUR OVALIE is a big price at 25s, 22s & 20s in the Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle at Windsor (3.35)….

The big downside? She’s 6lb out of the handicap….

I know that feature of the bet makes it a hard sell….

…. I get that…. I appreciate where you’re coming from….

But I’m going with Tour Ovalie anyway….

Here’s why….

She’s been going the right way this term with three wins from four goes – rising from 101 to 116 in the rankings….

…. she’s fit, she’s in-form, she’s progressed for every run this term, and there is more to come yet….

Back in December – after her win at Ludlow – trainer Evan Williams talked about ‘quietly’ stepping up in Grade with her….

She won a C3 at Newbury next time out worth £9k….

…. and now she’s contesting a race with a six-figure prize fund….

How’s that for doing it quietly….

The terms are clearly disadvantageous tomorrow – there’s no getting away from that….

…. she’s rated 116 but carries the same weight as would a horse rated 122….

But they’re running her anyway….

…. and that’s interesting in and of itself….

…. because the decision goes against what might be termed conventional theory or standard practice….

There could be any number of reasons for this….

…. but my reckoning is that they fancy her to run into the money and – at the price – I’m happy to go against the grain and to swing the old bat….

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Now, just to recap….

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That’s all for today….

I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd