Friday, 31st January 2025
In ATC today….
…. I swing the bat in all the big weekend handicaps….
The Heroes Handicap Hurdle is the feature at Sandown tomorrow….
…. the off time is 3.07….
…. and my pick of the prices is RED DIRT ROAD at 8s….
I’m also on SIR PSYCHO in the 2.50 at Musselburgh – he’s up at 16s ….
…. I’m on FASCILE MODE at 10s & 8s in the 4.05 at Leopardstown….
…. and I’m on GELINO BELLO at 9s & 8s in the 3.42 at Sandown….
That’s the summary….
…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….
Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below….
Read on….
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There’s no doubt the market’s found the right favourite in the Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown (3.07)….
…. Henri The Second won in fine style over course and distance (his first go at the trip) last time and he certainly won’t mind the ground tomorrow….
He’ll need to overcome an 8lb hike in the weights – but he won by a wide margin in December and could have won by further still….
He didn’t beat any world beaters – but you’d think he’s got a fair way to go before the handicapper finds the stopper….
All that said he’s been well-found in the betting and – at the prices – preference is for Jonjo O’Neill’s RED DIRT ROAD at the general 8s….
He really stepped up on his reappearance effort at Carlisle when winning at Aintree over Christmas – going away from the opposition in the closing stages over 2m4f….
He’s sent over another half-mile tomorrow – and that looks nailed-on to suit given the volume of stamina on display in his pedigree….
He’s another in the field who won’t mind the prevailing conditions underfoot….
…. and he likes to race up with the pace – which has been an advantage in this race. Not many win coming from behind. Eight of the last 10 winners were somewhere close to the front end…..
He’s a fair bet at the price….
Harry Derham has endured a frustrating period after his gallops flooded at the end of November….
…. but a winless sequence came to an end at Newcastle the other day and his horses might not be as out of form as the figures suggest….
Derham isn’t frightened of targeting the money and runs three in the Scottish Champion Chase at Musselburgh (2.50)….
Kansas City Star can’t be trusted after throwing a strop at Ascot last time….
…. and whilst Fidelio Vallis – sporting first-time cheekpieces – appears to have been targeted at this and is down to his last winning mark (produced over tomorrow’s course and distance)….
…. he’s not been showing the same kind of levels he did heading into that assignment….
All things considered I prefer SIR PSYCHO at the 16s….
He ran a cracker last time – giving weight to a seriously progressive Keep Running at Ffos Las over an inadequate trip….
…. with the rest plenty strung out behind….
His trainer reports that he’s come out of that race ‘bucking and squealing’ and – whilst he’s probably not as well-handicapped as you’d like – being at the top of your game and in rude health counts for a lot….
…. and I reckon he can outrun what is a big price….
Over at Leopardstown I like FASCILE MODE on handicap debut at the 10s & 8s in the Ryanair Handicap Chase (4.05)….
He made a sound start to life over fences at Punchestown when he beat Touch Me Not (now rated 147) and Moon D’Orange (a Cheltenham winner last week) in October….
He fell next time and then the wheels came off the time after that – his jumping went to pot when sent off the short-priced favourite in a relatively modest novice event back at Punchestown in mid-December….
Given all that, the fact that he’s here at all tomorrow – targeting a valuable pot in a hot handicap heat – is interesting….
It suggests connections retain faith in the horse, I strongly suspect that we’re yet to see the best of him, and I reckon his opening mark of 135 is one he can leave behind….
I’m mindful he was highly thought of as a hurdler – running in four G1 events – and that he’s been given a bit of time (and – no doubt – some remedial work at home)….
I’m just interested by his presence in the field when connections could have taken easier options. He could turn out a different horse tomorrow and the price is good enough….
Finally, I’m having a crack at the 9s & 8s about GELINO BELLO in the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase back at Sandown (3.42)….
This one-time G1-winning hurdler hadn’t raced since January 2023 before pitching up last month in a handicap hurdle at Wincanton….
He’d had a wind-operation and he ran as well as might be expected off a 698-day break – keeping on to the line under a 5lb claimer….
The plan had been the Welsh Grand National – but the abandonment of the trial card at Chepstow scuppered that and Sandown tomorrow looks like plan B….
I expect the 9yo to be as fit as a flea, he doesn’t mind a right-handed track, Harry Cobden’s back in the plate, and you’d think a horse targeted at Chepstow in mid-winter will handle tomorrow’s ground….
Yes, he concedes weight all round – but on mark of 141 he could prove seriously well-treated….
He’s coming into the race a little off-radar, and the price is fair enough in my book….
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Now, just to recap….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets…. In the 3.07 @ Sandown….
e/w terms = It’s 4 places generally…. In the 2.50 @ Musselburgh….
e/w terms = It’s 4 places generally…. In the 4.05 @ Leopardstown….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 5 places. It’s 4 places generally…. In the 3.42 @ Sandown….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 4 places. It’s 3 places generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but subject to fluctuation. Shop around – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
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That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
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