Rolling the dice at Newbury & Warwick....

Friday, 7th February 2025

Rolling the dice at Newbury & Warwick….

In ATC today….

…. I swing the bat and chase wages in the weekend handicaps….

The William Hill Hurdle is the feature at Newbury tomorrow….

…. the off time is 3.35….

…. and my pick of the prices is MIRABAD at 14s….

I’m also on SMARTY WILD in the 3.15 at Warwick – he’s up at 8s & 15/2….

…. and I’m on SANTOS BLUE at 14s in the 1.50 at Newbury….

That’s the summary….

…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….

Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below…. 

Read on….

-----

It’s a pretty thin weekend on the handicap front….

…. but we do have a big one at Newbury (3.35) – the William Hill Hurdle….

…. the most lucrative handicap hurdle on the British programme….

…. offering prize money totalling £155k – of which the winner banks £87k+….

The one I fancy at the prices is MIRABAD at the general 14s….

He’s up 10lb for his win at Cheltenham in December….

…. but he needed that rise given that his connections have earmarked some pretty lofty targets for him over the spring….

The County Hurdle has been mentioned as a serious objective….

…. and if they want to get him a guaranteed run in that then he’ll need to force the handicapper’s hand again….

…. because a mark of 130 promises to be a touch-and-go job come March….

That mark would have got him into last season’s renewal of the County – but not the previous two….

…. and I reckon that’s why they’re showing up tomorrow – to have a serious go at getting raised again….

…. which basically means he’s being sent out to hit the frame….

The trouble might be the ground….

…. it’s been drying out but there’s a little rain forecast overnight and if it turns too soft then they might well pull him out because he needs a decent surface….

In that instance I’d be switching my allegiance to Alan King’s Favour And Fortune at the 9s….

…. because I’m pretty sure he’s going to improve for his comeback run at Ascot where he went well for a long way and wasn’t given a hard time once the tank emptied….

I’m going to have another crack at SMARTY WILD – up at 8s & 15/2 in the Unibet Middle Distance Series Veterans' Handicap Chase at Warwick (3.15)….

He’s not what you’d call a serial winner – with just one success from 16 goes over fences….

…. and that’s a bit of a worry – for sure….

But he ran well for a long way before fading out if it last time at Market Rasen over 3m….

…. and this step back in trip might just help – because it can’t be ignored that four his best five performances on the RPR scale were achieved over fences at intermediate trips….

He’s two runs into his comeback from a long break and could well improve again tomorrow – just for general fitness and match practice….

…. and he’s down another 2lbs in the handicap to a mark of 125 – so he’s being given a hell of a chance by the official assessor….

Finally, I’m on SANTOS BLUE at the 14s in the William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap Hurdle at Newbury (1.50)….

Last time at Hereford over 2m4f – on his second run back this term – he stuck to his task really well behind a progressive winner he was giving plenty of weight to….

I thought it was an encouraging run and whilst he goes tomorrow off a mark that’s just a pound below his career-high….

…. I do like the step back up to the 3m trip….

The way he finished that last time suggests it will suit….

…. and I reckon he’s a fair old price given that he could well be running into form for his top yard and remains unexposed at staying trips….
 
-----

Now, just to recap….

-----

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd