Monday, 3rd March 2025
Whenever I play a handicap race my basic objective is to back a ‘live’ contender at the wrong price….
Easy said. But how do you go about finding such horses?
That’s the million-dollar question....
Every race is unique….
…. there’s no one element of voodoo that works the magic every time….
…. and every punter has his own way of doing things....
Me? I take each race on its own merits….
…. I study the runners and riders – from multiple angles….
…. and I see what jumps out at me....
It’s a time consuming process requiring plenty of focus and energy….
…. and that’s why most punters don’t bother with the ‘homework’ aspect of the game....
No problem. Each to his own….
…. my way isn’t the only way, after all....
Another way to play the races is to find a qualified angle of approach that will put you into play across a series of races – rather than just one….
…. and by qualified angle – I mean one with a history of producing winners, placers & betting profit....
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Gun-to-head time at Cheltenham….
I’ve spent the last few weeks sifting through the statistical record of the handicap chase and hurdle events….
…. with specific focus on the last 12 Cheltenham Festival meetings....
It’s a deep and wide river of numbers and other data….
…. more than 200,000 separate bits of data to be precise (and that’s the abbreviated version)....
Nothing is obvious – especially if you don’t know for sure that what you’re looking for is actually there to be found....
It’s easy to be become snow-blind….
…. and discouraged....
It’s easy to give up….
…. or to buy into the view that a dataset has nothing productive to deliver....
But today, I can report that I’ve isolated a few golden nuggets….
…. the best angles the dataset is able to deliver….
And I’m going to share those angles with you over the next few days….
…. because that’s the kind of guy I am....
One thing – before we get down to business….
…. if you’ve haven’t already accessed your FREE copy of my annual report….
…. it’s called: Pinpoint ‘live’ contenders at the Cheltenham Festival 2025….
…. you can get hold of it right here….
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Festival angle #1….
I know little or nothing about the intricate realities of training racehorses....
But it seems to me that getting a race-fit horse ready to compete in a big race is an easier job than getting a horse to perform in a big race when it’s been off the track for a while....
Maybe my thinking is wrong….
…. but I took the decision to interrogate the stats from that perspective....
I wanted to see if any trainer has a better record than the others when it comes to producing horses that prove competitive in big Festival handicaps on the back of a layoff....
In Australia, they have terms for different types of layoff….
…. a freshen is a 3-4 week-break between races….
…. a let-up means 6-9 weeks between runs….
…. a spell is a break of 10-weeks or more....
A spell represents the longest type of break from competitive racing….
…. and I crunched the numbers in a bid to discover which British handler (if any) produces the most competitive runners in Festival handicaps off that kind of break....
Turns out Willie Mullins is your man….
…. and by a country mile too….
He’s got a fantastic record with Festival handicappers running off a spell (70+ days)....
Over the course of the last 12 Festivals he’s sent 24 horses into handicaps off a break of 70 days or more....
Granted, only two managed to win….
…. Arctic Fire won the 2017 edition of the County Hurdle….
…. and Saint Roi won the same race in 2020….
…. but another six hit the places (if you include 5th place finishes which many bookmakers pay out on in big-field Festival events)
In other words, Mullins goes well with such runners….
…. and had you backed all the qualifiers 1pt e/w at SP you’d be sitting on profits of 20.6 points....
It’s simple….
…. it’s straightforward….
…. and at somewhere close to a point of profit per qualifying horse….
…. it’s well worth considering as an addition to your Festival toolkit….
Give very strong consideration to backing qualifiers up at BIG prices….
…. because the really unfancied ones at 20s and bigger have done well –frequently outrunning market expectation….
The last eleven qualifiers produced a win and four places….
…. plus betting profits worth 33.6 points to 1pt e/w at SP….
Make no mistake….
…. an overlooked and unfancied handicapper….
…. trained by Willie Mullins….
…. and running off a 10+ week break….
…. is no bad contrarian angle….
Oh, and bear in mind that at early morning prices, on the Tote, or at Betfair SP, you’d have likely improved on the bare SP profit & loss figures I’ve reported….
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That’s all for today….
More tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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